- Thread starter
- #21
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-22
- Thread starter Kds86z
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #22
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #23
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #24
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #25
Kds86z
Member
Thanks for letting me know. There’s what appears to be a series of East Colorado mesoscale days that will be in the cards after this one. Those can be rewarding if you play them the right way.
- Thread starter
- #27
Kds86z
Member
OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AN EXPANSIVE MCS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS RECOVERY WITHIN THIS REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SECONDARY MCS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE UPSTREAM EML AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING/RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS.
HOWEVER, OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EML ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND
AIDING IN RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A LOCALIZED
CORRIDOR WITH GREATER TORNADO THREAT LIKELY EXISTS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FROM PRIOR STORMS
PRECLUDES ANY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
AN EXPANSIVE MCS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS RECOVERY WITHIN THIS REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SECONDARY MCS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE UPSTREAM EML AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING/RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS.
HOWEVER, OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EML ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND
AIDING IN RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A LOCALIZED
CORRIDOR WITH GREATER TORNADO THREAT LIKELY EXISTS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FROM PRIOR STORMS
PRECLUDES ANY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
Attachments
Last edited:
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
HRRR removed the whole southern portion of morning convection. But even then, the morning convection in S IL could evolve into a tornado-producing QLCS.
Also, @buckeye05, i would take a gander tomorrow in SW NE if you have time. Sneaky setup for a photogenic supercell if you want to go there. SPC catching on to that setup additionally too.
Also, @buckeye05, i would take a gander tomorrow in SW NE if you have time. Sneaky setup for a photogenic supercell if you want to go there. SPC catching on to that setup additionally too.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
85/60 will sure favor a significant tornado threat and 90 0-1km SRH! Never change Reed!
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Woah, correction. The 12z HRRR says that cell in W NE could get interesting later. Strongly curved profiles with nearly 3k SBCAPE. Seems like @buckeye05 may have a chase on after all!
- Thread starter
- #32
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #33
Kds86z
Member
Latest day 2:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL/IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING, WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS (INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES) IS EXPECTED TO EXIST. HOWEVER, AS WAS ALLUDED TO IN THE
INITIAL DAY 2 DISCUSSION, AND IS STILL THE CASE, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE LATITUDINAL VARIABILITY IN THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY
LOCATION. AS SUCH, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO DELINEATE HIGHER
SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL/IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING, WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS (INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES) IS EXPECTED TO EXIST. HOWEVER, AS WAS ALLUDED TO IN THE
INITIAL DAY 2 DISCUSSION, AND IS STILL THE CASE, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE LATITUDINAL VARIABILITY IN THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY
LOCATION. AS SUCH, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO DELINEATE HIGHER
SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.
- Thread starter
- #34