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Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

The 3km NAM is having difficulties.
 
Sounding off the 12km NAM in North MS for late Sunday into Monday.
 

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The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.
 

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JPWX said:
The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.
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General dynamics in that area the last several runs have been assuredly bonkers. Reeeeaaally hoping they don't come close to verifying.
 
Hailing here at my house marble size northeast of Birmingham. Anybody know someone at the nws of bham? There's no severe warning.
 
Our power just came back on a few minutes ago. Got a lot of heavy rainfall and thunder/lightning.
 

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JPWX said:
That greenish color is usually indicative of a hail core I believe. That's crazy! All this is crazy.
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I've always associated that with tornadic storms. Looking at radar velocities its been spinning pretty good up high in the atmosphere.


Currently that same storm has a absolutely massive hail core on radar.
 
00z NAM sounding for Northwest MS, Itawamba County, MS, and Monroe County, MS late Sunday going into Monday.
 

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JPWX said:
00z NAM sounding for Northwest MS, Itawamba County, MS, and Monroe County, MS late Sunday going into Monday.
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NAM is definitely refusing to let up here. Definitely not a fan of the reflectivity presentation on it for Sunday or Monday.
1686972448553.png1686972465125.png
 
If the NAM is correct, then I would expect to see SPC ramp up the tornado threat outside of the damaging wind/large hail potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Enhanced Risk by tomorrow with the potential for a further upgrade to Moderate (mainly for damaging wind if so)
 
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