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Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

Clancy

Clancy

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D4-8 outlook, focusing on Sunday, 6/18.
1686854251182.png
...DISCUSSION...
Models indicate that the large-scale mid/upper flow over North
America will undergo transition during this period, with wind fields
and vertical shear generally weakening across most areas east of the
Rockies during the early through middle portion of next week.
Downstream of an amplifying mid/upper trough over the interior
Northwest, it still appears that an increasingly prominent high will
form near/north of the upper Great Lakes region. However, this
regime may remain progressive, with the high shifting eastward then
southeastward across Ontario and Quebec into the Northeast through
Thursday, while the interior Northwest troughing (and embedded
impulses) accelerates across the Canadian Prairies and northwestern
Hudson Bay vicinity. In lower latitudes, the center of a prominent
subtropical high is forecast to shift west/northwest of the lower
Rio Grande Valley into the southwest Texas/Chihuahua vicinity,
downstream of a closed low within broad, weak troughing digging
across the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, weak mid-level troughing
appears likely to generally linger across the Southeast.

There remains a signal that a convectively augmented mid-latitude
perturbation emerging from the Great Basin may contribute to the
maintenance of the Southeastern mid-level troughing. It appears
that this feature, and an associated belt of seasonably strong wind
fields, will dig across the Mid South on Sunday. There it may
encounter a return flow of seasonably moist air, with steep lapse
rates on its southwestern through southern periphery contributing to
large mixed-layer CAPE. This may support renewed intensifying
thunderstorm development by Sunday afternoon, if not earlier. This
may include a few supercells, before convection tends to grow
upscale into one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating
clusters accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Sunday
night.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2023
Click to expand...
 
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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

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April, is that you? South-central Arkansas. Same setup @andyhb posted about on Twitter the other day.

One thing that pops out to me about the hodograph, is the monster shear at all levels. Plenty of distance between the KM points. However rather like with the 2014 Vilonia setup there could be visibility issues from the forward flank core curling out in front of the updraft region/tornado path, despite the otherwise good upper-level venting. PWAT is also way up there, as well.

nam_2023061600_072_33.47--92.88.png
 
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JBishopwx

JBishopwx

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