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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

Clancy said:
FWIW, CIPS-forecasted SHERB values via the GFS have been consistently robust over MS/AL/GA. While more classic parameters aren't showing very much over the area of interest, I still think the northward edge of the threat bears very close watching. A pretty minor difference in the amount of moisture and available energy could translate to a serious difference in the performance deeper inland, considering the wind fields at hand (sounding from East-Central AL).
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Interesting. Never heard of SHERB before. Something to look into.
 
JPWX said:
So as far as areas impacted by next Tuesday, do we think it'll be farther north than the Gulf Coast? Personally, I still believe it'll be further north than models currently have it.
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Jackson has pulled their risk area north.
 

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All of the local WFOs are also mentioning the non-thunderstorm wind threat also. Could easily see 45-50mph gusts outside of thunderstorms Monday evening and Tuesday.
 
A couple very non-authoritative, passing observations from a generic hobbyist regarding failure modes, warm sector potential and implications.

1) A moisture wedge and/or rain shield situation seems to one of the biggest potential threat mitigators for the northern halves of MS/AL/GA.
2) Dixie tornadoes are known for often getting gnarly while riding moisture boundaries, which could be an issue depending on where the northern edge of the WS sets up.
3) Coastal crapvection could cut off northward expansion of the warm sector, and though I don't see this clearly modelled, that certainly doesn't rule it out.
4) Currently, the trends in models seem like they suggest a fast-moving QLCS from the 7th Circle.
5) If the models slow the system down like they often do, might allow for more discrete development, but who knows.

sfctd-imp.us_se.pngprateptype_cat-imp.us_se.png

Overall conclusion? I dunno *shrugs* but there's a lot of factors to juggle here, and a lot of things that could go any which way between now and next week.
 
Clancy said:
A couple very non-authoritative, passing observations from a generic hobbyist regarding failure modes, warm sector potential and implications.

1) A moisture wedge and/or rain shield situation seems to one of the biggest potential threat mitigators for the northern halves of MS/AL/GA.
2) Dixie tornadoes are known for often getting gnarly while riding moisture boundaries, which could be an issue depending on where the northern edge of the WS sets up.
3) Coastal crapvection could cut off northward expansion of the warm sector, and though I don't see this clearly modelled, that certainly doesn't rule it out.
4) Currently, the trends in models seem like they suggest a fast-moving QLCS from the 7th Circle.
5) If the models slow the system down like they often do, might allow for more discrete development, but who knows.

View attachment 22852View attachment 22853

Overall conclusion? I dunno *shrugs* but there's a lot of factors to juggle here, and a lot of things that could go any which way between now and next week.
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Primary Threat outside of tornado potential especially with that squall line is gonna be widespread damaging winds in addition to the non-thunderstorm winds.
 
Also these storms are gonna be booking it so there may not be that much lead time. Hopefully there is though.
 
JPWX said:
Also these storms are gonna be booking it so there may not be that much lead time. Hopefully there is though.
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Yeah, whether discrete, mixed or squall, they'll be hauling like a freight train.
 
 Last night’s operational Canadian and EURO were not impressed with the chances of substantial moisture advection inland into southern Alabama like the GFS. I remember they both performed better than the GFS with that regard to last year’s Jan 24-25th event.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
 Last night’s operational Canadian and EURO were not impressed with the chances of substantial moisture advection inland into southern Alabama like the GFS. I remember they both performed better than the GFS with that regard to last year’s Jan 24-25th event.
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I keep seeing others say that models generally don’t handle moisture return in the winter very well.

Something to keep in mind and watch out for.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
 Last night’s operational Canadian and EURO were not impressed with the chances of substantial moisture advection inland into southern Alabama like the GFS. I remember they both performed better than the GFS with that regard to last year’s Jan 24-25th event.
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EURO is depicting persistent coastal convection which is probably going to keep energy and moisture from moving northward if it verifies.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus (1).pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus (2).png
 
KevinH said:
These pics still have an ugly look to them lol
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Indeed, but the coastal convection could take a serious bite out of any threat to the north.
 
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