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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.

...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and the overall severe risk.

...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much of the southeastern United States today, with several small perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mas southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercell and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026
 
And that's why parts of Northeast MS are still in a 2% tornado probability. Referring to @Clancy post above
 
JPWX said:
And that's why parts of Northeast MS are still in a 2% tornado probability. Referring to @Clancy post above
Click to expand...
Despite meager instability, I'd definitely keep an eye on it. Very persistent mesocyclone. SRH stronger than RAP forecast, 300+ m2/s2 in this area.
1767967322776.png
 
12Z CAM suite uptrended the threat for Saturday afternoon across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 3 of 4 show at least a narrow tongue of instability making it all the way up into northwest Georgia and riding along I-20 in Alabama in the morning-to-afternoon hours on Saturday, ahead of a frontal convective line. Some predict some prefrontal semi-discrete convection. CAPE of 500-1,500 j/kg will be overlapping with decently-curved hodographs, making tornadoes a possibility. Soundings attached from near Ashland, AL and Dallas, GA, respectively. Soundings show ample instability, substantial 3CAPE values and modest but sufficient kinematics. Fascinatingly, HRRR is the most bearish of the CAMs, with muted instability across all but the Gulf Coast. While I don't believe the threat is particularly high, I think it still is very much worth watching, especially if these forecast trends continue.
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