Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

[Kds86z]

Their latest D2 outlook indirectly hints at higher end probabilities if the placement of the LLJ is better. Feeling like a slight outlier scenario but we will see

Oh ok. Def in a lull atm.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oops sorry wrong facebook link

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

SPC storm reports page has added 3rd tornado for today. So we ain’t done yet,

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST.

* AT 741 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOKOMIS,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PANA AND TOWER HILL AROUND 750 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
FINDLAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

---

LAT...LON 3935 8914 3935 8928 3966 8887 3966 8881
3958 8881 3958 8872 3952 8872 3952 8864
3947 8858 3945 8858 3945 8847 3943 8847
3922 8911 3922 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 230DEG 63KT 3923 8923

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[Kds86z]

SCUSSION...AS OF 0145 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/MO. COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST HAVE
STEADILY OVERSPREAD A NARROW PLUME OF MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S F). LIMITED BUOYANCY (MUCAPE ~ 500
J/KG) HAS SO FAR PREVENTED MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION OR LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED ALBEIT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTENING COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BRIEFLY ORGANIZE GIVEN VERY
STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS. A LINEAR STORM MODE IS MOST PROBABLE, BUT
BREAKS IN THE LINE, OR SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS FARTHER SOUTH COULD
SUPPORT SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. GIVEN THIS, AND
STRONG FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, (1-3KM AGL WINDS
40-60 KT) ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY LARGE SRH (0-1KM 400-600 M2/S2).

THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR A LOCALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
THE MEAGER CAPE AND STRONG SURFACE STABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
APPARENT FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S F. SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY GREATER THREAT
FOR STRONG GUSTS MAY MATERIALIZE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. STILL, GIVEN THE KINEMATIC FIELDS, AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
REGION.

 

[Ledian]

Tower Hill storm is one to keep an eye on. Just got tornado warned

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Still warned:

 

[stallions3peat]

3-6 inches yikes!

Cold Weather Advisory: Wind chills drop to the teens in Alabama

First Warning Impact Days persist next week because of dangerous cold levels in Alabama.

www.wvtm13.com

That's what she said.

 

[speedbump305]

That's what she said.

Dude, what the hell lmao.

 

[VultureDirge89]

So the SPC is actually considering a Enhanced for tomorrow. BUT it's dependant on the placement of the LLJ and will that coincide with any meaningful confluence band development? It's definitely a conditional uptrend, but it is in the cards for tomorrow according to them. Tornado threat later on tonight continues to be monitored.

Honestly the instability is low enough that I would keep it at a slight...but that's just me.

 

[Clancy]

Fascinatingly, NAM 3km's 00Z run now predicts a thin tongue of instability out ahead of a QLCS on Saturday afternoon. Also calling for SRH values of 300-350. IF that scenario were to verify, we could definitely have a spin-up tornado risk on Saturday in the eastern half of Alabama and western half of Georgia. Not sure how much I buy it, but interesting that the NAM of all things is depicting a solution like that.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's what she said.

You finally got back on the ole forum lol, make sure you bring your rain boots to work tommorow you'll need them haha

 

[Clancy]

Fascinatingly, NAM 3km's 00Z run now predicts a thin tongue of instability out ahead of a QLCS on Saturday afternoon. Also calling for SRH values of 300-350. IF that scenario were to verify, we could definitely have a spin-up tornado risk on Saturday in the eastern half of Alabama and western half of Georgia. Not sure how much I buy it, but interesting that the NAM of all things is depicting a solution like that.

View attachment 49794View attachment 49795View attachment 49796View attachment 49797

Should've added this to the above, but SREF also has increasing confidence in at least marginal SCP values Saturday. Definitely raises a brow for a couple of spin-up surprises.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Had to save that myself for posterity. It was fine until about 20 minutes ago.