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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

KakashiHatake2000 said:

here is the link to the livestream since it is about to go live in the next 30 minutes
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countdown GIF
 
Trey seems to think the setup has downtrended in recent runs, especially as pertains to the trough and associated forcing lagging more behind the warm sector, and a weaker LLJ than previously forecast Friday evening/night.
 
End of run on NAM 3km is interesting. Pretty good wind fields but still underdoing instability compared to the GFS, in terms of areal coverage. Definitely could see a noteworthy nighttime tornado threat over MS (sounding from SE of Jackson).
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Justin Hindman said:
Hrr for misssisippi screams Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency . We shall see
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As of right now it looks like Thursday is going to start with a bang, fizzle out fairly quickly, and hold people's attention all weekend, while nothing else noteworthy happens. All these updraft helicity swaths tell me Thursday could overperform. I don't think there's any real value in calling a boom or bu$t scenario about Friday until tomorrow.

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Something off the latest NAM that's worth noting, and I think is a very believable scenario. The 00Z run basically has any overnight activity slop-ifying and turning into a convective mess over central and northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. If that were to take place, it would really put a damper on severe activity later in the day. I think it's a fair chance, just given how systems typically work out for us - convection growing upscale overnight into rain. Could still see a few spin-ups with any lucky boundary-riders on Saturday, as well as anything that forms south of that convective blob. Also possible stuff lifts off to the north, leaving whatever limited instability an opportunity to build in. I still think it's a fairly meager threat either way, but every time I underestimate a setup like this, it does something stupid.

One thing I'd note is that unlike the 18Z GFS, NAM does end up building another LLJ out ahead of the frontal convection on Saturday afternoon. That could help compensate for things in parts of AL/GA, especially with fairly rich moisture in place. NAM's depicted instability is still absolutely paltry, and if it rains all morning north of I-20, it might not be wrong, but I wouldn't count on it yet. Anywho, I've basically just walked myself in a circle here - point being, it'll be hard to make heads or tails until we can start seeing how things actually play out, especially regarding convective evolution on Friday.
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I expect somehow we will still get our Meridian Madness, Smith County Shenanigans, or Monroe County misbehaving out of this system. Seems the best guess. If you from Mississippi, you know what I'm talking about.
 
Ok actually, somebody tell me i'm trippin, why is the Nam showing 2500 CAPE values making up to almost Iowa?!

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This is from the Kansas City area

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It's also worth noting the GFS has been projecting a deepening of the low consistently over the last 15 runs

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And the GFS Ensemble

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So has the Euro

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I wouldn't doubt if this thing is sub 990 by the time it crosses over the plains. And the HRRR appears to agree

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That being said I have no clue what any of this means. I just think it's very interesting, and probably important?
 
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And to anyone wondering why I'm showing a low pressure system all the way up over Iowa, I'd show you another severe weather event with a low pressure system over Iowa.

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Disclaimer: Just posting for reference. Not making any predictions. Idk why i'm even doing these disclaimers, there will be trolls in here calling it a bu$t and saying it was being called 12/10 2.0 regardless of what happens. So here's a radar loop of 12/21 just for funs

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Honestly for me, the main intrigue I have for the setup is where the modeled corridor of heaviest rain totals manages to set up; the farm becomes a disastrous muddy mess after even an inch of rain and the driveway culvert started to wash out in last spring's heavy rains. Another flash flood type rain is probably gonna finish it off. I'm a bit more concerned about some of the insanely high totals some of the runs are throwing than the severe threat lol. I'd like to end the drought with a series of smaller events not uhhhhhh all at once

That said... heavy rain all day on Friday and then damaging wind gusts on Friday night in saturated soil is certainly a recipe for trees falling and also causing issues
 
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