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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

A conditional brief tornado threat may exist in Oklahoma around early morning tomorrow. As you go into the early morning hours of Friday, brief spinups may he possible with the developing line in the Midwest. After that, it mainly goes to Mississippi towards 00z with a brief tornado threat with any linear segments. I would be wary after 06z towards SE MS/ and a tad bit north east of there. If any favorable line segments DO wrap up, shear may support a quick, significant spinup. So in total, there will be several areas with tornado threat potential but nothing necessarily high end appears to be on the table. The QLCS after midnight could certainly surprise however
 
CIPS says "not bad" to the QLCS tornado risk on Saturday across Alabama and Georgia. NAM is underdoing instability significantly again, it appears. Soundings are from GFS south of Birmingham and from near Rome, GA (slight contamination on the Rome sounding, but it's still fairly representative). Still the same story overall - the main challenging forecasting factor is parameter overlap. I think best chances of tornadoes Saturday are still over parts of Alabama in the morning hours, where we'll have the best combination of kinematics and instability. Western Georgia could see a few spin-ups, but the larger system is lifting off to the north by then, and SRH will be rapidly decreasing.
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Clancy said:
CIPS says "not bad" to the QLCS tornado risk on Saturday across Alabama and Georgia. NAM is underdoing instability significantly again, it appears. Soundings are from GFS south of Birmingham and from near Rome, GA (slight contamination on the Rome sounding, but it's still fairly representative). Still the same story overall - the main challenging forecasting factor is parameter overlap. I think best chances of tornadoes Saturday are still over parts of Alabama in the morning hours, where we'll have the best combination of kinematics and instability. Western Georgia could see a few spin-ups, but the larger system is lifting off to the north by then, and SRH will be rapidly decreasing.
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Looks like cips is picking up on the sand mountain magic ;)
 
Clancy said:
CIPS says "not bad" to the QLCS tornado risk on Saturday across Alabama and Georgia. NAM is underdoing instability significantly again, it appears. Soundings are from GFS south of Birmingham and from near Rome, GA (slight contamination on the Rome sounding, but it's still fairly representative). Still the same story overall - the main challenging forecasting factor is parameter overlap. I think best chances of tornadoes Saturday are still over parts of Alabama in the morning hours, where we'll have the best combination of kinematics and instability. Western Georgia could see a few spin-ups, but the larger system is lifting off to the north by then, and SRH will be rapidly decreasing.
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I would not be surprised if overnight is the real event. That instability/kinematic solution has been enough for significant tornadoes out of QLCSes in Dixie before. It all depends on line orientation and how strong low level shear really gets to utilise that
 
1930 SPC D3 update with very few changes, just a slight southeast expansion of the Slight Risk. Mentions a conditional discrete supercell risk, but high uncertainty precludes getting more specific at this time.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys...
In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface
low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the
surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the
Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time,
broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass
ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a
belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite
poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of
effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable
of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief
tornado into the afternoon hours.

In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad
upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South
vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low
while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the
overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume
of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a
quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN
Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level
hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of
organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing
a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However,
weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase
the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026
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After model-watching for days and days, this is shaping up into one of those annoying setups that could turn out to be not much of anything; or it could produce a few strong and destructive tornadoes, probably late at night. Lose-lose situation for SPC/other forecasters, chasers, and the public. :(
 
RRFS model is available on Weatherbell.

Current Idea:
SPC goes with Enhanced Risk for damaging wind with 5% TOR. Possibility of 10% SIG TOR hatch, but at this time, I don't consider that likely.
Primary Threats: damaging winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, flash flooding. The flash flooding is gonna be the most overlooked hazard (reminds me of December 25th, 2015)
Higher CAPE than currently being forecast especially over MS, but at this point, I could care less about how much CAPE there is
 
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