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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

Another note to make, and maybe this is more of a anecdotal statement. There has been very, and I mean very little in the way of moisture hinderance in the Gulf stretching all the way back to last summer. Very few tropical systems, and not much retreating of warm air from cold fronts in the Gulf. That has to greatly improve the content of moisture which would be available for any deep low pressure systems that far south. I really believe were in a compromising and uncommon spot with the Gulf being as warm as it is. My attention has been granted on this event now.
 
Tanner said:
Another note to make, and maybe this is more of an anecdotal statement. There has been very, and I mean very little in the way of mosture hinderance in the Gulf stretching all the way back to last summer. That has greatly improve the content of moisture which would be available for any deep low pressure systems that far south. I really believe were in a compromising and uncommon spot with the Gulf being as warm as it is. My attention has been granted on this event now.
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Dang dude. Good point and info. Thanks
 
Tanner said:
Another note to make, and maybe this is more of a anecdotal statement. There has been very, and I mean very little in the way of moisture hinderance in the Gulf stretching all the way back to last summer. Very few tropical systems, and not much retreating of warm air from cold fronts in the Gulf. That has to greatly improve the content of moisture which would be available for any deep low pressure systems that far south. I really believe were in a compromising and uncommon spot with the Gulf being as warm as it is. My attention has been granted on this event now.
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Aka no gulf tropical cyclones @Tanner?
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The ECMWF-AIFS and several other models like the idea of that moisture return. I'm curious what a particular man in Tennessee would have to say about this setup and I'm sure you'd know who I'm talking about
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I couldn’t agree more. It’s completely anecdotal, but if an event a few days out starts getting “the look”, Fred will usually drop in here for a visit.
 
Tanner said:
Another note to make, and maybe this is more of a anecdotal statement. There has been very, and I mean very little in the way of moisture hinderance in the Gulf stretching all the way back to last summer. Very few tropical systems, and not much retreating of warm air from cold fronts in the Gulf. That has to greatly improve the content of moisture which would be available for any deep low pressure systems that far south. I really believe were in a compromising and uncommon spot with the Gulf being as warm as it is. My attention has been granted on this event now.
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This could mean something for the season as a whole too, this moisture return has been going since probably the week before Christmas and we had nothing to use it. This system has a decent celling should we see instability get to a adequate range here and the 18z GFS is trending to how it was a few days ago. 500 SBCAPE or more al the way up to South central Indiana. You don't get such decent warm sectors like this in January without something going to use it wildly.
 
ColdFront said:
I couldn’t agree more. It’s completely anecdotal, but if an event a few days out starts getting “the look”, Fred will usually drop in here for a visit.
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Yeah, i would be curious if Fred sees the same. He just tells it how it is. This setup isn't going to reveal itself well until the day before or even of
 
Tanner said:
Confluence bands…that’s your biggest indicator right there. Think of March 24, 2023, December 10, 2021, and April 2, 2025. Confluence bands or areas of localized vorticy will greatly improve confidence in an event reaching its ceiling.
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It's always important to watch out for confluence bands in even the sneakiest events. I always used to forecast prefrontals just based off CAMs but then just learned how I could detect potential development.

It's to note most confluence band events usually don't work, most end up very sloppy but then some do mature into a row of supercells. It only takes many constructive mergers to organise a supercell out of one confluence band and that will be your player. That's what took place on 3/24/23. One organized supercell out of that fairly sloppy confluence band and it took advantage of the environment very well. I still think things will change with the upcoming trough but we've gotta watch closely. Great posts, man!
 
The Euro is the most bullish as far as widespread 60 or greater dewpoint along with better CAPE than GFS/Canadian. We'll see what SPC has tomorrow morning, but wouldn't be surprised to see a large 15% with potential for the 30% ENH upgrade closer to.
 
Extended the thread title to include the 10th, as the latest Euro keeps the warm sector onshore in GA and the Carolinas through at least early afternoon Saturday, with the trough finally losing most of its positive tilt and a >120kt jet streak in the OH Valley.
 
Some pretty good-looking troughs off the 00Z AI-GFS and Euros. Normal GFS is looking a little funky, though. Normal Euro is pulling more of a negative tilt compared to previous runs. Honestly, surprised things have been trending up consistently for several days.
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Synoptically, the upper levels are about as good as it gets for January, negative tilt long wave trough with 100+knot velocity exit region almost parallel with the PBL flow regime.

Im particularly interested in how amplified the leading shortwave (assuming it doesn’t phase out) will be out ahead of the long wave trough, along with its latitude. That will determine the magnitude of moisture return, thermos, and LLJ.

Im confident that operational models, along with the NAM, are underestimating thermos, which is typical during winter months. Dew points will likely be in the mid 60s across much of Dixie alley with temps in the low to mid 70s (maybe higher coverage of 80s).

Regarding tornado potential, it seems surface mixing will be optimal, especially if there’s lack of overcast, and the upper level jet being close parallel to the LLJ points to a discrete mode. Too far out to make heads or tails about the condition of the inversion but so far the models seem to keep it weak.

Overall, don’t see much of a reason why we won’t have a significant severe weather outbreak for the SE.
 
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