CheeselandSkies
Member
All right, thread time. By now the models seem to be keying in on Friday as the main day of interest, although depending on the model/run, Thursday may hold some marginal potential somewhere.
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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
(moving from severe weather thread) Here's the CAPE that was required for 12/10/21. It'd be pretty shocking if we touched those levels. It was a very large open warm sector.
I do think if those 63+ degree dew points cement themselves a little further north it'll mean big trouble. This is going to be the last puzzle piece to fall. Temps are just too unpredictable this year with all the Arctic air in play and how warm the gulf is. It could swing dramatically in either direction with the smallest influence.
For example, this week with temps being warmer in the North, If surface winds come down from the Midwest where snow has melted and it's now bone dry, cloud cover and fog will be minimal and more surface heating can happen. If wind comes instead from Michigan and the NE, where snow will be melting rapidly, the air will be much more moist and clouds/fog are more likely. Either scenario could have a large compounding effect that factors into Surface heating and moisture advection on Friday.
I do think if those 63+ degree dew points cement themselves a little further north it'll mean big trouble. This is going to be the last puzzle piece to fall. Temps are just too unpredictable this year with all the Arctic air in play and how warm the gulf is. It could swing dramatically in either direction with the smallest influence.
For example, this week with temps being warmer in the North, If surface winds come down from the Midwest where snow has melted and it's now bone dry, cloud cover and fog will be minimal and more surface heating can happen. If wind comes instead from Michigan and the NE, where snow will be melting rapidly, the air will be much more moist and clouds/fog are more likely. Either scenario could have a large compounding effect that factors into Surface heating and moisture advection on Friday.
I'm sure this isn't the best way to move a post but I'm a dum dum.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
So I think this is what we can say so far, the higher confidence is on the synoptic pattern, a strong trough ejecting east with a robust mid/upper-level jet and a clear surface response. That supports widespread ascent, a strong low-level wind field, and the potential for organized convection.
Moisture return looks adequate for this time of year, but the magnitude and inland extent of the warm sector remain uncertain. The biggest questions are still trough orientation, surface low track and depth, LLJ timing, and how much destabilization can occur before convection and mixing limit it. And most of these will be answered come forth with time.
Moisture return looks adequate for this time of year, but the magnitude and inland extent of the warm sector remain uncertain. The biggest questions are still trough orientation, surface low track and depth, LLJ timing, and how much destabilization can occur before convection and mixing limit it. And most of these will be answered come forth with time.
Somewhat depends on locale. Your sounding, from Missouri, much closer to the actual front, is a lot less curved. Further out, across the Southeast, there's plenty of curvature (this sounding from northern AL/MS line; I know there's no instability, just showing hodos here).
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Whilst storm mode appears to be more linear, the very intense low level windfields at place should support a tornado threat with segments in the line/any surges ahead. 12z GFS is honing in on a nice HSLC setup and down south in Mississippi, there may be a secondary window for low end, brief tornadoes. This system may continue to uptrend thermodynamically. We will see.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
These situations with very strong speed shear can produce tornadoes too, but it would be preferred to have a hodograph like yours at hand. It all depends on line orientation to really make this type of strong SRI combo properly work. It can be very efficient at tornadogenesis in the right setup
WOW It's been a very long while since we've seen a 985 mb low on the GFS.
And continuing with the ridiculous comparisons just look at that placement!
Disclaimer: Comparisons are purely for fun and are in no way a prediction for the upcoming event.
And continuing with the ridiculous comparisons just look at that placement!
Disclaimer: Comparisons are purely for fun and are in no way a prediction for the upcoming event.
It’s really hard to forecast convective mode at this stage. A lot of that can depend on deep layer shear vector orientation, which can change depending on the geometry, dry air, if there is somewhat of a cap, what forcing mechanism actually gets storms to go, if there’s confluence in the OWS etc. etc. Details too fine to be worked out at long range.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I would think there's some slight differences between the trough and 12/10/21, the trough was a bit more broad allowing for lesser forcing to support somewhat a long duration mode, whereas here the area of interest is fairly close to strongest forcing. Hodographs that night were ridiculously impressive when combined with the instability. The synoptic placement of the low is pretty similar though no doubt
Latest runs kick up a pretty nasty LLJ afternoon into overnight Friday. There will be some diurnal instability over parts of the MSV during the day, which GFS models as waning as eve approaches, but with strong dynamics lifting moisture northward, I bet there will be some nocturnal energy present as it moves over Alabama and Georgia. Main question for me is just how well things overlap. I think you're looking at a thin tongue of instability going up into the MO/IL/KY area during the day, focusing Gulf-ward as the evening passes. Again, though, it all depends on what kind of structural changes over the next several days on the models.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I guess that's a fair assessment, i just like to get a bit ahead in the stage and check those details out. I would moreso just saying I'm picking apart the runs and showing their general scenario. There's still time for a lot of this to change (and hopefully not in a downhill way)
That kind of moisture forcing often maintains at least a nocturnal CAPE ribbon as the warm conveyor lifts north. If the strongest 0–1 km wind response overlaps any semi-rooted convection or like a boundary, the environment could get efficient fast. The “thin tongue” idea makes sense for daytime instability up into MO/IL/KY, then the better buoyancy axis sagging Gulf-ward as precip spreads and the boundary layer stabilizes.
RFD66
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #18
CheeselandSkies
Member
Seems like the ECMWF-AIFS has been on the bandwagon of greater moisture than the other models for a while now. It's also quite a bit slower with the system than the GFS, having the cold front still back over OK/TX instead of near the Mississippi River.
The GFS usually does have a notable progressive bias outside of about 4-5 days, but that's a pretty substantial difference.
The GFS usually does have a notable progressive bias outside of about 4-5 days, but that's a pretty substantial difference.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The ECMWF-AIFS and several other models like the idea of that moisture return. I'm curious what a particular man in Tennessee would have to say about this setup and I'm sure you'd know who I'm talking about
Tanner
Member
Confluence bands…that’s your biggest indicator right there. Think of March 24, 2023, December 10, 2021, and April 2, 2025. Confluence bands or areas of localized vorticy will greatly improve confidence in an event reaching its ceiling.