Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Figures.. I live at the Far East of end of area you circled in red (basically the ENH risk area).

Wait and see….

You may be battling a wedge in your neck of the woods not sure.

 

[KevinH]

You may be battling a wedge in your neck of the woods not sure.

The last UDH post you posted had the tracks to the south and north of me.

Soooooo keep those comp refl and UDH tracks coming if you would not mind.

 

[Clancy]

16Z HRRR isn't done yet but it's got some nasty storms over the ATL this evening.
Edit: Accompanying UH tracks.

 

[KevinH]

16Z HRRR isn't done yet but it's got some nasty storms over the ATL this evening.
Edit: Accompanying UH tracks.
View attachment 16437

SMH…

Yep. I am keeping an eye on those cells in S AL as they would be the part of the system that moves through my area. I would expect AT LEAST a MD or WW within the next few hours. I have IEMBot ready!

 

[MattPetrulli]

I like the Birmingham area for tornadoes today. Good balance of instability + shear and HRRR consistent on multiple discrete cells. That cell cluster in SW Alabama may end up spitting out a few tornadic supercells and head into Central AL. I was surprised SPC didn't extend the 10% hatched.

 

[Clancy]

SMH…

Yep. I am keeping an eye on those cells in S AL as they would be the part of the system that moves through my area. I would expect AT LEAST a MD or WW within the next few hours. I have IEMBot ready!

Stay safe out there. Same goes for everyone reading.

 

[KevinH]

16Z HRRR isn't done yet but it's got some nasty storms over the ATL this evening.
Edit: Accompanying UH tracks.
View attachment 16438

I did not see this graphic during my previous reply. That second track in AL around the Montgomery area “points” directly to the area I live (Muscogee Co, GA). SMH

 

[KevinH]

1st TOR in AL for Hale, Morengo, Perry Counties

 

[Clancy]

Two storms within/near the polygon exhibiting pretty strong rotation.

 

[keithGA]

One heck of a UH track there

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I like the Birmingham area for tornadoes today. Good balance of instability + shear and HRRR consistent on multiple discrete cells. That cell cluster in SW Alabama may end up spitting out a few tornadic supercells and head into Central AL. I was surprised SPC didn't extend the 10% hatched.

I59 corridor is the sweet spot this setup

 

[MichelleH]

I59 corridor is the sweet spot this setup

It needs to stay down there. Don't want it up here.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Possibly a TDS with that tornado warning in Alabama. Hard to tell.

*Went away so apparently not.

 

[JPWX]

I am always amazed by Spann's coverage.

 

[Clancy]

New MD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AT THIS
TIME IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA AT
THIS TIME -- WITHIN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 007.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST TRANSIENTLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS HAVE REMAINED
FOCUSED MAINLY WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ALABAMA.

IN PARTICULAR, RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL, ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MOVING ACROSS THE HALE AND MARENGO COUNTY VICINITY IN
WESTERN ALABAMA -- WITHIN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WW. AS THESE
STORMS SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, ALONG EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
WATCH, A LOCAL EXTENSION OF A FEW COUNTIES WILL CONTAIN THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE, RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES, CONTINUES ACROSS THE BROADER WW AREA.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I am always amazed by Spann's coverage.

Is he live already? S***, I'm still at work.

 

[KevinH]

I am always amazed by Spann's coverage.

Where can you watch him live?

 

[keithGA]

Is he live already? S***, I'm still at work.

Yeah, there is one active warning in their viewing area.

 

[JPWX]

Is he live already? S***, I'm still at work.

Yep.

 

[JPWX]

Where can you watch him live?

Here's the link

Watch

ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama offers news, sports, and weather reporting for the surrounding communities including Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Cullman, Gadsden, Talladega, Sylacauga, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Hoover, Bessemer, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Trussville and Homewood.

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