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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

I saw (either here or Twitter?) that someone said there COULD be an upgrade to MOD today with the later updates. I am not too sure I have seen anything (yet) to warrant that, BUT……

What are everyone’s thoughts, or is the upgrade conditional based on what happens throughout the day?
 
I'm honestly surprised they didn't upgrade with last night increasing the enhanced area with a small moderate, I imagine they have it on the books ready to go before the event kicks off though. If anything models have made the storm mode a bit more discreet than model depictions over the last 24 hours.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm honestly surprised they didn't upgrade with last night increasing the enhanced area with a small moderate, I imagine they have it on the books ready to go before the event kicks off though. If anything models have made the storm mode a bit more discreet than model depictions over the last 24 hours.
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Yeah discrete is not good news.
 
First of I presume many tornado warnings just issued on the Alabama Mississippi state line, looks like things are kicking off. Cluster of spinning tops in front of it as well not warned yet though.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Updraft swaths for the next 12-14 hours according to the HRRR. Very worrying. View attachment 16435
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These swaths kind of match up with your post about the composite reflectivity. The composite reflectivity seems to indicate a bunch of supercells are headed towards my area (west Central GA), but the updraft swaths in THIS post seem to be to the north and south of where I live (Columbus, GA). I know this is not set in stone and not 100% accurate, it is just interesting to notice. I am still going to watch things like a hawk though. Not to get too caught up in risk categories, but I am riiiiiiiight at the eastern edge of the EHN risk. I look forward to seeing if this gets shifted/upgraded at all with the next Conv Outlook that is due in about 30 minutes.
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
If you're a betting man, put your money on a tornado warning in Calera, Alabama later. Seems like every storm in that area goes crazy near Calera.
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Agree 100%, the 15z run of hrrr. Indicates a couple of long track supercells near the Birmingham area this afternoon. It's either the Calera track or the fultondale track. I think the foothills of the Appalachians deters them either to the north or south of it haha.

Kindve curious as to whether a boundary from the big MCS/Squall will form and push it's way south. Maybe the HRRR picks up on that and has a cell or two training on it? Who knows not in the best position to really check the mesoscale analysis and take a deep dive.
 
Taking a quick glance at mesoscale analysis. Your going to have a decent boundary somewhere in the middle of north /central Alabama.

Just off analysis your probably gunna have some of your worst storms move through that corridor. Yellow is the corridor I think best for boundary storms. Black is the storm mass. And red is the biggest severe threat area. Don't see anything north of that boundary really garnering back any quality moisture through the day.Screenshot_20230103-104953-370.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Taking a quick glance at mesoscale analysis. Your going to have a decent boundary somewhere in the middle of north /central Alabama.

Just off analysis your probably gunna have some of your worst storms move through that corridor. Yellow is the corridor I think best for boundary storms. Black is the storm mass. And red is the biggest severe threat area. Don't see anything north of that boundary really garnering back any quality moisture through the day.View attachment 16436
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Figures.. I live at the Far East of end of area you circled in red (basically the ENH risk area).

Wait and see….
 
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