Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[cincywx]

something to watch

 

[Clancy]

CC drop at Deatsville?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Hello!

 

[Clancy]

CC drop at Deatsville?

There's a mini supercell factory happening SW of this storm.

 

[Clancy]

Deatsville storm now TORR as well.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Deatsville storm now TORR as well.

It's a beast

 

[Clancy]

Not related to current activity but instability is already filling back in northwards behind the rain mass.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's a beast

Most impressive signatures I've seen this entire 2-day event so far.

Spann is great, but he needs to get out of the habit of saying "possible tornado" when there's a clear TDS. That means there's nothing "possible" about it, it's down.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not related to current activity but instability is already filling back in northwards behind the rain mass.
View attachment 16462

I guess wave 2 is incoming. Sadly updraft helicity swaths we're more impressive with this wave than the current one now.

 

[Clancy]

I guess wave 2 is incoming. Sadly updraft helicity swaths we're more impressive with this wave than the current one now.

To my memory squall lines can sometimes look more intimidating on UH than they actually are, though late overnight QLCS-spinups are a real menace.

 

[kcyalater]

i think the mitigating factor later will be winds becoming more unidirectional, but we’ll see.

 

[Jacob]

No warning on it currently, but there’s a pretty good circulation approaching the Sylacauga area. It’s not overly tight at the moment, but I’d treat it as if it was a warning if I lived there.

 

[Clancy]

No warning on it currently, but there’s a pretty good circulation approaching the Sylacauga area. It’s not overly tight at the moment, but I’d treat it as if it was a warning if I lived there.

SVR on it now. No tornado possible tag, though.

 

[KevinH]

Most impressive signatures I've seen this entire 2-day event so far.

Spann is great, but he needs to get out of the habit of saying "possible tornado" when there's a clear TDS. That means there's nothing "possible" about it, it's down.

I dont think he is able/allowed to call it a tornado unless and until it is confirmed by the NWS??

 

[UncleJuJu98]

To my memory squall lines can sometimes look more intimidating on UH than they actually are, though late overnight QLCS-spinups are a real menace.

Isi don't think it's forecasting a QCLS I'll check may have changed

 

[JPWX]

One thing I wish the NWS would change in the tornado warning wording is capable of but that's another can of worms for another time.

 

[Clancy]

TOR including Dalton, GA.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Isi don't think it's forecasting a QCLS I'll check may have changed

Looks like a broken line or line segment almost, hrrr actually has a very strong updraft swath here in the next hour or two just south of Birmingham.

 

[Clancy]

Looks like a broken line or line segment almost, hrrr actually has a very strong updraft swath here in the next hour or two just south of Birmingham.

SPC seems to think best chances for tornadoes for the next few hours will be in that outlined corridor east.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I dont think he is able/allowed to call it a tornado unless and until it is confirmed by the NWS??

NWS usually calls it a confirmed tornado (TORR) within a scan or two after the TDS pops up.

It's standard practice for local media mets to wait for the NWS to avoid a situation where one channel says "tornado warning" but others don't, possibly leading to confusion among the audience, but I would think if a met sees something significant that the NWS has missed they are duty-bound to call it.

Gary England used to do this all the time, he wrote about it in his book "Tornadoes, Television, and Turmoil." He got some blowback from the NWS for it, but kept doing it with a generally positive response from the viewing public. In fairness, this was at a time (early '80s) when KWTV had acquired (at his urging) their own Doppler radar, but the national NEXRAD wasn't yet operational, so their warnings were often in fact better than everyone else's, including the NWS.