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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

New HREF more aggressive on STP values, substantial swath of values at or above 2 tomorrow afternoon.
1673494552087.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Stay safe guys, keep a way of getting warnings overnight and early tommorow morning if your In Mississippi last thing you want is to be caught of guard by a surprise tornado threat. Time to hit the sack for me so I can wake up early tommorow to check the weather out before I start my day.
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What do you think the approximate time will be for this to be entering Alabama?
 
MichelleH said:
What do you think the approximate time will be for this to be entering Alabama?
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BMX says threat may begin as early as 7 AM in W AL.
image3.png
 
SPC considering a watch for northern Arkansas. They also introduced a small slight risk area from there to southern MO, far southern IL, far NW TN and far western KY.

Edit: The red areal delineation and caption in the graphic to me imply that a tornado watch is the type being considered, but the text says "Hail/wind are the primary threats, though some tornado risk may evolve where updrafts encounter near-60F surface dew points."

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 43

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Pretty strong for North Georgia (from this mornings forecast disco from FFC

Issued at 419 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

Thursday Afternoon/Evening: Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms

A quasi-linear convective system is forecast to enter the far northwestern Georgia around noon Thursday, and will swiftly push through the forecast area, exiting to the southeast just before midnight. This QLCS is expected to form along or just ahead of a strong cold front, supported by a deep shortwave trough digging through the southeast and a deepening surface low-pressure system pushing from the Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes region through the day. Ahead of the line of storms, dewpoints will rise into the low 60s, which will boost SBCAPE values between 500-1250 J/kg through most of the areas with decent lapse rates. A 50 kt jet streak will also be in place at the 850 hPa level, with steady speed shear through the low- and mid-levels and clockwise curvature in forecast hodographs which will set 0-1 km SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2. Additionally, a layer of dry air in the mid-levels will make for effective downdrafts within the line of storms, which should be very efficient at transferring severe wind gusts down to the surface. The combination of severe weather parameters will also support Significant Tornado Parameter values over 2 ahead of the line with CAM ensembles like the HREF showing the line will have embedded supercells/circulations evident by a dense Updraft Helicity field.

The result will be a QLCS with a significant damaging wind gust threat within the strongest storms and where bowing line segments occur. Additionally, with strong parallel flow ahead of the storms, vorticity along the frontal zone will be enhanced, making it easier for brief, spin-up tornadoes to form within and propagate northeastward through the line of storms. Models have also indicated some discrete storms may form ahead of the line and become supercellular with a wind/tornado threat, but confidence is lower for this storms mode. Ultimately this setup, which is extremely potent for this time of year, has resulted in an Enhanced Risk (a 3 on a scale of 0-5) for Severe Thunderstorms, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and several brief tornadoes being the secondary threat. Please be advised of any Watches, Warnings, or Severe Weather Statements issued for your area today.


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GA Stormchaser said:
Pretty strong for North Georgia (from this mornings forecast disco from FFC

Issued at 419 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

Thursday Afternoon/Evening: Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms

A quasi-linear convective system is forecast to enter the far northwestern Georgia around noon Thursday, and will swiftly push through the forecast area, exiting to the southeast just before midnight. This QLCS is expected to form along or just ahead of a strong cold front, supported by a deep shortwave trough digging through the southeast and a deepening surface low-pressure system pushing from the Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes region through the day. Ahead of the line of storms, dewpoints will rise into the low 60s, which will boost SBCAPE values between 500-1250 J/kg through most of the areas with decent lapse rates. A 50 kt jet streak will also be in place at the 850 hPa level, with steady speed shear through the low- and mid-levels and clockwise curvature in forecast hodographs which will set 0-1 km SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2. Additionally, a layer of dry air in the mid-levels will make for effective downdrafts within the line of storms, which should be very efficient at transferring severe wind gusts down to the surface. The combination of severe weather parameters will also support Significant Tornado Parameter values over 2 ahead of the line with CAM ensembles like the HREF showing the line will have embedded supercells/circulations evident by a dense Updraft Helicity field.

The result will be a QLCS with a significant damaging wind gust threat within the strongest storms and where bowing line segments occur. Additionally, with strong parallel flow ahead of the storms, vorticity along the frontal zone will be enhanced, making it easier for brief, spin-up tornadoes to form within and propagate northeastward through the line of storms. Models have also indicated some discrete storms may form ahead of the line and become supercellular with a wind/tornado threat, but confidence is lower for this storms mode. Ultimately this setup, which is extremely potent for this time of year, has resulted in an Enhanced Risk (a 3 on a scale of 0-5) for Severe Thunderstorms, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and several brief tornadoes being the secondary threat. Please be advised of any Watches, Warnings, or Severe Weather Statements issued for your area today.


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Bmx is strong as well, tornado potential may be pretty robust with some spin ups being on the stronger side possibly ef2/ef3 as well
. Long day ahead either from damaging winds or tornadoes Screenshot_20230112-044705-712.png
 
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