Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[Clancy]

 

[KevinH]

Next D1 update due in 8 mins

 

[Clancy]

TOR back on that Macon cell.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Update 198 gate to gate

Oh of course the one day this month I overlook and it spits out multiple intense tornadoes. Figures.

 

[Argus]

And as expected the Macon squall line expanded northward.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watch coming for far SE AL/SW GA/central FL panhandle:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 56

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Justin Hindman]

Oh of course the one day this month I overlook and it spits out multiple intense tornadoes. Figures.

The one day I don’t chase lol

 

[Clancy]

Slightly suspicious formation moving NE in Carroll County, GA.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Yea had SPC upgraded to a moderate risk I would've taken off work today to go to Alabama. Everything last night and this morning screamed linear. I can never justify driving to another state for an enhanced risk or lower on a weekday. I didn't have enough notice to make it work out with my job.

Mod or higher and I'll drive to another state on a weekday.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Really like the southern AL cell for future strong tor production, will be isolated for a bit and is in a good overlap of shear/instability. May be already producing a tornado it looks really good on BR

 

[CheeselandSkies]

To their credit (I did not notice this until now, since storms were already tornadic when it went out), SPC actually did upgrade to a 10% tornado contour at 1630, although no hatching.

 

[Argus]

The north end of the Macon line of storms has arrived. It is pouring here!

 

[Equus]

We clearly have an event that dramatically overperformed; it will be interesting to break down the analysis of the day and learn why things were able to stay a bit more cellular than expected and allow such a long lived violent supercell. Wind profiles certainly suggested tornadoes from isolated supercells but it's surprising how long the Big One of the day remained down. Maybe mesoscale factors helped; either way certainly one of the most impressive non-hatched days of recent years.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Probably weaker than earlier but still a clear TOG moving into Chambers.

 

[Sawmaster]

The north end of the Macon line of storms has arrived. It is pouring here!

Not up to Anderson SC yet. NWS GSP radar is down for repairs, going to WYFF TV Doppler now.

 

[Clancy]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

New "micro-MD," former significant tornadic supercell expected to continue to pose a near-term threat for QLCS spin-ups and significant severe gusts.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 58

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Justin Hindman]

Remember this morning the tornado risk was 2 percent

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

TOR for W GA.