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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

Looks like instead of a solid line we have had semi discrete cells continuously propagating upstream into a linear more, maybe getting a bit more solid now but would not be shocked to have some mean winds with it as it crosses the state line

SPC has been waiting ridiculously late to issue watches lately, really need one asap. Approaching the eastern edge of the current watch and not even a mesoscale discussion out
 
Comparing the Updraft Helicity, EHI, and STP forecasts on the NAM, RRFS A, and HRRR this morning really lead me to believe that the southern dip (Montgomery-Columbus GA south) is going to over perform and produce several+ nasty storms. Whereas several hours ago, the Updraft Helicity was absent, they are now starting to fill in.
 
Equus said:
Looks like instead of a solid line we have had semi discrete cells continuously propagating upstream into a linear more, maybe getting a bit more solid now but would not be shocked to have some mean winds with it as it crosses the state line

SPC has been waiting ridiculously late to issue watches lately, really need one asap. Approaching the eastern edge of the current watch and not even a mesoscale discussion out
Click to expand...

Current MSD that is out (which was posted at 7:55 am) says they may extend the tornado watch eastward into Alabama. Don't know why they haven't yet with those discrete cells popping up. I realize there might not be enough instability for a tornado watch, but they should at least issue a severe t'storm watch to keep the "normies" aware.
 
BMX went with a SWS instead of severe warnings and not looking like there are many reports (power outages may be related more to gradient winds) - hopefully we'll stay below severe limits, may not even need a watch at this point if that continues
 
Some rotation in the section moving into SW Pickens; might be just enough instability to put something down briefly

Screenshot_20240112-100650_RadarScope.jpg

Has been a tight velocity gradient and some light rotation east of GWX but not really sure how likely that would be to be able to do anything significant
 
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Not sure why Mississippi was put in an enhanced when it came in the predawn and early morning. I know it was for the wind, but just didn't see it. Surprised the higher threat wasn't shifted more east the atmosphere having more time to get prime
 
MCD now, watch poss., 40%.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 54

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area from southern and eastern Mississippi into
western and southern Alabama is being monitored for watch potential.

DISCUSSION...A low continues to deepen near the MS/AL border with
associated thunderstorm line segments. This area of storms near the
low has been producing 35-45 kt winds consistently. The air mass to
the east becomes progressively more stable with cooler temperatures
and lower dewpoints. Therefore, a ramp up in storm intensity is not
anticipated over much of northern AL.

Farther south, a warm front intersects the main cold front over
east-central MS, with better moisture spreading northward into
southwest AL and southern MS. Showers are developing in the warm
advection zone, but instability is generally below 1000 J/kg.

It is uncertain how much severe activity will occur over the next
few hours as the upper wave lifts north of the area, veering
low-level winds over the small warm sector and with limited lift.
Warm sector trends will continue to be monitored as destabilization
occurs into southern AL where lift along the warm front could
support a few severe storms.
Click to expand...
 
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