Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

[jackiesgeorge]

5am and i am ready to go to bed. i am also in north mississippi.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just had a amber alert and thought there was a tornado warning for my area hahaha

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest HRRR run is actually showing some rooted cells into central Mississippi with the good parameters.

Be careful today guys watch out for surprises

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is the corridor I would watch today. Where the best mesh is.

Has anybody done any real time obs comparisons to see whether the HRRR is shortchanging today's atmosphere so far? Instability has done a uptick of about 500j in some areas.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Instability is pretty darn high for portions of south central Alabama and south Alabama this morning on the HRRR.

1500-1800 SBCAPE. I smell a surprise today

STP maxed out in portions of that area. Contaminated or not that's worrisome. And SCP is VERY high.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

There maybe a TOG in west Mississippi right now

Northwest of vicksburg needs to watch out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

There's a lot of supercells rotating.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Spinning up west of Yazoo city

 

[tornado examiner]

Does anyone else think we might be in for a rude awakening today? That wintertime model’s may have been ahem….WRONG…when underdoing certain things?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Does anyone else think we might be in for a rude awakening today? That wintertime model’s may have been ahem….WRONG…when underdoing certain things?

Don't know yet, a real time comparison in the atmosphere compared to what's projected would be a good indicator in potential. But I'm too busy at the moment. I will say the HRRR has uptick a lot of instability over the Alabama area. Wether it's in vane idk.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

tornado is on the ground south of rolling fork!!!!

*Cc looks a bit displaced not for sure, definitely looked like a debris signature*

 

[tornado examiner]

tornado is on the ground south of rolling fork!!!!

this isn’t a good sign

 

[UncleJuJu98]

this isn’t a good sign

Definitely looks like a TOG but the cc is a tad displaced to the south of the couplet. Can't tell. Bad day for me to be. Busy trying to pay attention to weather

 

[MattPetrulli]

Does anyone else think we might be in for a rude awakening today? That wintertime model’s may have been ahem….WRONG…when underdoing certain things?

Can we stop it with the fear mongering?

 

[tornado examiner]

Can we stop it with the fear mongering?

Ooookay?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Rolling fork cell has strengthened again

 

[warneagle]

So four of the five closest radars to this storm are down? What are we doing here?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Another tornado warning ahead of it. Yikes a decent rotation on that one as well. (Maybe for same cell. But there's 3 individual positions around it lol) a lot of them are just producing hail it seems

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nice mesocyclone no CC on it

 

[Clancy]

Pretty potent QLCS this morning with some supercells west and south of Jackson.