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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

Birmingham 11z HRRR F001 vs the Observed 12z Sounding:


1705066381763.png

1705066107282.png


And Jackson:

1705066497519.png

1705066619235.png

And Biloxi:

1705066708720.png

1705066745120.png



My observations:

Surface to 3km AGL Lapse Rates are trending higher than the model, mid-level relative humidity is also trending higher in most areas, and CAPE is somewhat higher than forecast. The hodographs, surface temps, and surface dew points are very close to the model.
 
wx_guy said:
Birmingham 11z HRRR F001 vs the Observed 12z Sounding:


View attachment 23299

View attachment 23296


And Jackson:

View attachment 23300

View attachment 23301

And Biloxi:

View attachment 23302

View attachment 23303



My observations:

Surface to 3km AGL Lapse Rates are trending higher than the model, mid-level relative humidity is also trending higher in most areas, and CAPE is somewhat higher than forecast. The hodographs, surface temps, and surface dew points are very close to the model.
Click to expand...


Check out the hodos

@CheeselandSkies
@Clancy

A lot better than what the nam and globals showed. They ended up a lot better with backed winds.
 
Clancy said:
12Z NAM 3k coming in with UH streaks across AL and Western GA.
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Yeah , i really don't like the look of the current HRRR run. A pseudo rain shield boundary and relatively stout looking supercell in the bmx area.

Might be elevated but still. Looks like it gets shredded when it enters around Jefferson county though too
 
Gail said:
Yes but the public that needs access to the only public tornado shelters in the county will be denied too. When they built the new schools, they made dome style gymnasiums for this purpose.
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Huh. Well, goes without saying the best outcome is the one which protects the most people.
 
mcd0053.png
 
Hrrr really favoring that corridor right below the rain shield for a storm or two to rotated or maybe get rooted this afternoon. Not impressed so far, but there's some signals. I pray that the instability doesn't pop off more or you probably will have some trouble, might have a storm or two break through that stable layer
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Hrrr really favoring that corridor right below the rain shield for a storm or two to rotated or maybe get rooted this afternoon. Not impressed so far, but there's some signals. I pray that the instability doesn't pop off more or you probably will have some trouble, might have a storm or two break through that stable layer
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Wishing for clouds, lots of clouds.
 
The 9z SREF is pointing out Northwest FL / southern AL / southwest GA later today for possible shenanigans (50-70% probability, so not amazing chances). This field is the crossed probability between chances of .01 in of rain, MU CAPE of 500 or more, and Eff Shear of 30 or more. The 12z NAM also shows updraft helicity tracks in these areas, so I'd say Pensacola FL, Dothan AL, Albany GA -- be on the lookout for some sneaky storms to slip through.

1705068762748.png
1705068864483.png
 
wx_guy said:
The 9z SREF is pointing out Northwest FL / southern AL / southwest GA later today for possible shenanigans (50-70% probability, so not amazing chances). This field is the crossed probability between chances of .01 in of rain, MU CAPE of 500 or more, and Eff Shear of 30 or more. The 12z NAM also shows updraft helicity tracks in these areas, so I'd say Pensacola FL, Dothan AL, Albany GA -- be on the lookout for some sneaky storms to slip through.

View attachment 23305
View attachment 23306
Click to expand...
That demopolis to Selma to Montgomery area in general looks to be best for me. Dynamics are better and instability meshes right there. Pinched off but could produce a nasty storm.
 
Anybody else have issues finding this thread on the general weather page? Storms South and East of Jackson, Ms will need to be watched as they race off to the NE ahead of the main line. Already have that hodo look
 
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