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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

WxMan42711 said:
not too many of yall live up this way but the tornado threat along and south of the ohio river tomorrow may hold some surprises
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AS I mentioned yesterdaay, the upper level forcing may be just right, not too much for messy convection, but also just enough subtle forcing along with mesoscale opportunities for initiation. One feature I am starting to see is what looks like a low levl boundary from earlier storms to be in the northwest corner of the state...plus there may be another boundary a little further south where there is clearing/sun and clouds. Also, if this is correct, the low level turning/backed winds will likely be stronger in the lower levels increasing the modeled helicity values. All of this seems familiar with rememberable events....especially in the late March/April timeframe. The fact that it is still February with a lower sun angle does cause me some pause/concern. However, the readily available high theta-e air could make up for some of that....which by the way the NAM is considerably less robust than compared to the CAMS...but that's not a complete surprise.
 
WxMan42711 said:
not too many of yall live up this way but the tornado threat along and south of the ohio river tomorrow may hold some surprises
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There's definitely parameters in place that I have not seen in a good while for the Southern Ohio Valley. HRRR in particular is very robust along the Ohio RIver Thursday. Not sure HRRR puts out the most accurate parameter measurements, but the CAPE up around the Southern Ohio Valley on the 12z run is something that I havent seen in a good while. 12z NAM seems even more robust.

I wish we would hear more talk about areas further North in here, BUT; I 100% realize the majority of people in here reside in the deeper South. I probably wouldn't focus on areas that are far from me, either. So its understandable.
 
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OhOkayThen said:
There's definitely parameters in place that I have not seen in a good while for the Southern Ohio Valley. HRRR in particular is very robust along the Ohio RIver Thursday. Not sure HRRR puts out the most accurate parameter measurements, but the CAPE up around the Southern Ohio Valley on the 12z run is something that I havent seen in a good while.

I wish we would hear more talk about areas further North in here, BUT; I 100% realize the majority of people in here reside in the deeper South. I probably wouldn't focus on areas that are far from me, either. So its understandable.
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You are right, we don't speak of further north areas much, but for me, that's because I just don't have the experience in forecasting those areas, as I do here at home. I will say, something significant is possible there and I would have my guard up for sure.
 
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Definitely a strong signal for supercells along that ENH risk corridor... whether we see strong tornadoes probably depends most on low level lapse rates, and from what I've just eyeballed it looks like the lower levels seem more unstable in forecast soundings as opposed to about 24 hours ago, a trend which will likely continue through the day. An intense tornado definitely seems possible to me if a discrete supercell manages to become robust and properly surface based.
 
Good post @Richardjacks.

I think everybody should realize, just take your weather precautions no matter whether your in the slight, enhanced, or moderate possibly tommorow. Just have a way to get weather alerts. And place to go, I'll post a storm shelter list tonight if somebody else hasn't. Kinda sets some red flags when a meteorologist seems weary of a deep south event. Wether this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or a boom. No need to panic!
 
I'm in Nashville and am keeping a wary eye SW of me tonight..but my bigger threat is tomorrow. CAMs are hinting at a lot of rain/convection in the area but there is potential for severe winds and maybe a couple of tornadoes this way.
 
Richardjacks said:
AS I mentioned yesterdaay, the upper level forcing may be just right, not too much for messy convection, but also just enough subtle forcing along with mesoscale opportunities for initiation. One feature I am starting to see is what looks like a low levl boundary from earlier storms to be in the northwest corner of the state...plus there may be another boundary a little further south where there is clearing/sun and clouds. Also, if this is correct, the low level turning/backed winds will likely be stronger in the lower levels increasing the modeled helicity values. All of this seems familiar with rememberable events....especially in the late March/April timeframe. The fact that it is still February with a lower sun angle does cause me some pause/concern. However, the readily available high theta-e air could make up for some of that....which by the way the NAM is considerably less robust than compared to the CAMS...but that's not a complete surprise.
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This is exactly what i was discussing in discord earlier with some friends of mine. The earlier convection is a giant red flag for me for outflow boundaries creating localized SFC wind backing and consequently enhanced sigtor threat. I didn't catch the boundary further south, but now that you point it out I see that one as well. Given that we have largely veering SFC winds, boundaries and other features that can locally enhance SFC backing are going to play a huge role in where our sigtor threat materializes tomorrow.

As for your comments on the CAMs...I've been pretty much discounting the NAM entirely. The NAM is notorious for being too cold and dry in the winter months, and a combination of the other CAMs leaning towards the HRRR (which has been consistent) and the fact that the NAM solutions have slowly gotten closer and closer to the HRRR has led me to basically ignore the model entirely.

As for the ohio valley, hodographs are very crosswise which is my trepidation with forecasting a significant event that far north. That being said, the NAM oddly enough likes that area more than dixie, given it has the LLJ reaching that far north and still being relatively strong, enlarging the hodographs and largely making vorticity ingestion much more streamwise.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Tonight main concern for tornadoes with couple strong ones. Will be from pine bluff Arkansas to bout jackson Tennessee. Sw to ne. That’s place chase tonight
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Given that we're seeing thermals already overperforming, and that we're seeing patches of clearing, my forecast for tonight has changed. It seems like we're going to overcome the warm nose far earlier, which means I think further south and east are going to be better plays. I actually think the HREF that was just posted above has a good general handle on location; ARLAMS area up to NE of Memphis.

EDIT: looking again, I think the HREF actually has the location of the southern end of the threat wrong. I think closer to vicksburg is more likely.
 
Richardjacks said:
You are right, we don't speak of further north areas much, but for me, that's because I just don't have the experience in forecasting those areas, as I do here at home. I will say, something significant is possible there and I would have my guard up for sure.
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always always always appreciate your insight sir.

cincy mets have sharply shifted their tone over the past 12 hours and with it being near 70 and sunny today, im truly not sure how many people are aware of what tomorrow may hold. plenty of ohio valley events have stemmed from setups with similar parameters. several models continue to bring 1500j/kg - 1750j/kg up to the river.
 
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