Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

tennessee storm chaser said:
Really think most Alabama will get spared as best dynamics get pulled northeast …. I’m off tomorrow guess me and my partner start out Ms. Arkansas delta region. Work back home
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I hope so.
I don’t want tornadoes to hit anyone.
I love love watching them, but don’t want them near people. As long as they stick to areas with no homes I’m happy.
 
MoonBaby said:
If I had those powers none of us would ever be broke again. Tuscaloosa just sucks severe weather into the state. It’s like a vortex.
Hahahhahahaha omg you really put that under my name. I’m honored hahaha
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Stay safe!

I swear it’s always MS/AL.. I am not a MET, but I have to believe that MS/AL being directly north (and center) of the Gulf has something to do with how active they are. Sure LA/GA/FL get severe weather, but not like the Oklahomas of the South (typically).
 
MoonBaby said:
I hope so.
I don’t want tornadoes to hit anyone.
I love love watching them, but don’t want them near people. As long as they stick to areas with no homes I’m happy.
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Agreed. We need tornadoes to occur so they can be studied and (hopefully) forecasted better, but not at the expense of peoples lives :/
 
18Z HRRR continuing with increased instability coverage over AL. Seems like CAMs are doing the "day-before uptrend" thing.
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I don't recall how the SPC outlook evolved in the days leading up to 12/23/2015, but if this event has any similarity, FWIW that tornado threat ended up materializing mostly in Northeast Mississippi. Still, if I lived literally anywhere in the area stretching from northern Louisiana to central Alabama I'd be on my toes - at least nine of them.
 
TH2002 said:
I don't recall how the SPC outlook evolved in the days leading up to 12/23/2015, but if this event has any similarity, FWIW that tornado threat ended up materializing mostly in Northeast Mississippi. Still, if I lived literally anywhere in the area stretching from northern Louisiana to central Alabama I'd be on my toes - at least nine of them.
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It was a Day 2 enhanced at the 1730z update and upgraded to Moderate by the 1630z update on the day of.
 
Clancy said:
18Z HRRR continuing with increased instability coverage over AL. Seems like CAMs are doing the "day-before uptrend" thing.
View attachment 22341
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Updraft swath density is impressive for north Alabama on the 18z hrrr, shear is best there as well. There might not be a ton of significant tornadoes or even a outbreak but I think you'll have a active night. Atleast severe storm wise ;)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Updraft swath density is impressive for north Alabama on the 18z hrrr, shear is best there as well. There might not be a ton of significant tornadoes or even a outbreak but I think you'll have a active night. Atleast severe storm wise ;)
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HRRR also seems to have semi-discrete convection. Could definitely be a night of transient supercells that drop tornadoes. Not a great thing to have well after bedtime.
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Yessir , wondering if the HRRR is just on crack lol. I'll jump on board with a 00z and 06z hrrr runs that are similar.
 
JAN AFD:
There is enough progged juxtaposition
of anomalous destabilization & increased mean shear (i.e. ~1500
J/kg MLCAPE & 30-50kts of 0-3km & 0-6km mean bulk shear,
respectively) for all modes of severe weather including a few
tornadoes possible, damaging wind gusts & hail of quarter to golf
ball size. Lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 deg C & vertical totals in the
25-27 deg C range support anomalous destabilization, near
climatological record, for robust updrafts & large hail. Storm
mode at the onset is potentially some supercells transitioning to
broken line/bowing line segments, with embedded tornado potential
highest any east-northeast bowing segments.

Recent high-res CAM runs of the HRRR & RFS have begun to speed up,
with late aftn to early evening across extreme northwest ArkLaMiss
Delta, evening to around midnight across the Natchez Trace to I-55
corridor & late evening to just after midnight for areas east of I-
55. There could be some rogue aftn stronger storm or two that may
have some severe potential, but a majority should be in the late
aftn to evening timeframe. Rain & storm chances, with the best
forcing, have trended earlier but remain pretty isolated southeast
of the Natchez Trace Saturday aftn, but sufficient shear could
support a low end severe threat before the robust activity moves
in. Expect rain & storm chances to quickly scour out through
daybreak Sunday, with majority of the severe potential done
around midnight & any lingering low end potential done around 3AM.
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What is the timing of storms for Huntsville metro tomorrow night? I’m supposed to have a big family dinner at a local restaurant around 5:30 PM. Even if the severe threat east of I-65 is less, I will have people driving in from Sand Mountain and driving in heavy rain after dark is no fun.
 
KevinH said:
Stay safe!

I swear it’s always MS/AL.. I am not a MET, but I have to believe that MS/AL being directly north (and center) of the Gulf has something to do with how active they are. Sure LA/GA/FL get severe weather, but not like the Oklahomas of the South (typically).
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Warm moist air from the gulf collides with cold, dry air from the north, along a jet streak that occasionally brings lit matches in the form of low pressure disturbances along for the ride. This is why dixie alley is like no other for severe weather. Location, location, location.
 
akt1985 said:
What is the timing of storms for Huntsville metro tomorrow night? I’m supposed to have a big family dinner at a local restaurant around 5:30 PM. Even if the severe threat east of I-65 is less, I will have people driving in from Sand Mountain and driving in heavy rain after dark is no fun.
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Looks like storms move in around 5-7 pm in the Huntsville area, don't take that for gospel because models seem to still be a bit fluent right now, wait until tomorrow morning, a more exact timing will be more likely by then
 
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