Friday night into Saturday: Main focus for the forecast period is
on severe weather potential late Saturday. Southerly low level
flow will begin strengthening Friday night ahead of a deepening
longwave mid/upper trough. Isolated to scattered warm advection
showers will be possible Friday night, with greater coverage
possible toward Saturday morning as a weak leading shortwave
passes across the Mid South. Given strong deep layer shear and
sufficient elevated instability, a few storms are also possible.
More robust activity won't arrive until stronger forcing does via
upper level height falls and a cold front approaching later in
the day Saturday. Storms are expected to develop along the front
west of the area during the afternoon and begin reaching the
ArkLaMiss/Delta area closer to the late afternoon/early evening
time frame. Initial development may be more cellular, with strong
deep layer shear, moderate instability, and somewhat steep mid
level lapse rates providing potential for damaging wind gusts and
large hail. The strongest low level SRH currently looks to stay
out of phase with the stronger convection, so though we can't rule
tornadoes out, the threat looks relatively low. As storms advance
eastward, mode will quickly become more linear and eventually
begin to lose steam by late evening with the loss of instability.
A strengthening low level jet across north MS may help to offset
this limitation somewhat and maintain greater severe potential at
least over the northern half of the area. More of a lagging line
and lesser low level flow may help to limit severe potential more
over the southern half of the area. Convection will exit the area
during the late overnight/early Sunday morning hours. Overall,
there are no major changes to previous severe outlook graphic, so
it will be maintained.
