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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat April 23-24, 2021

Argus said:
The atmosphere is gonna have to make a dramatic recovery. Right now 62/26 in Atlanta.
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I remember many of us questioned the forecast dramatic temp & dewpoint jump Easter 2020. By noon Sunday the warm & muggy air had arrived. However, its possible that not having the buoyant atmosphere did slightly temper the severity of the outbreak. We had fewer supercells & more linear tornadoes with just 1 or 2 "violent" tornadoes.
 
brianc33710 said:
I remember many of us questioned the forecast dramatic temp & dewpoint jump Easter 2020. By noon Sunday the warm & muggy air had arrived. However, its possible that not having the buoyant atmosphere did slightly temper the severity of the outbreak. We had fewer supercells & more linear tornadoes with just 1 or 2 "violent" tornadoes.
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That outbreak produced three EF4s and 13 EF3s....

I’m not sure if you’re referring to the outbreak as a whole, or just what went on in your locale, but there was more than just a few strong to violent long-trackers across various states that day.
 
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buckeye05 said:
That outbreak produced three EF4s and 13 EF3s....

I’m not sure if you’re referring to the outbreak as a whole, or just what went on in your locale, but there was more than just a few strong to violent long-trackers across various states that day.
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I don't deny it was really bad or intend to slight the significance of that outbreak. And maybe it's because AL wasn't hit as hard or the SPCs repeated reluctance/refusal to go with the slight risk. But, the initial cool/dry atmosphere may have limited the EF4+ total. Had the warm/humid airmass arrived earlier I think we would've had even more violent/long-track tornadoes.

As for the present, I notice that now the SPC & BMX has upped most of AL to Enhanced.
 
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Mark Drees has a tornado on his stream:

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
livestormchasing.com livestormchasing.com
 
Tennie said:
Mark Drees has a tornado on his stream:

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
livestormchasing.com livestormchasing.com
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Large debris cloud now, "large and extremely dangerous" verbiage used in warning.
 

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It looks like the NAM is coming around to the HRRR with most of the action south in Georgia centered on Columbus-Macon in two rounds, morning looks to be south, afternoon looks to be north, but not really into Atlanta metro. I'm heading out tomorrow morning and probably targeting in between Columbus and Macon for the first round, follow it east, then double back for round two.
 
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That Columbus-Macon-Atlanta triangle seems to be one of the real hot spots in Georgia for whatever reason. In addition to the recent EF4 in Newnan, there was the Barnesville EF3 that tracked through there on 4/27/11 and another EF3 further south near Americus on 3/1/07 (same day as the Enterprise tornado). The cell that spawned the Beauregard tornado also produced a strong tornado in that general area.
 
The latest tornado watch for Alabama/Georgia/Florida panhandle given a moderate risk for strong tornado(es):



Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 106

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
I'm down here in Americus currently, I'm getting lunch then relocating west toward Cusseta, GA. The HRRR is still showing some development potential though it's definitely nothing like was shown earlier.
 
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