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Severe Weather Threat April 1-4

Today certainly continues to look interesting. Latest observations indicate, roughly as expected, clusters of storms firing in close proximity to the surface low. It seems clearing has/is taking place which will bolster thermodynamics, and the models suggest fairly decent instability is present, including at lower levels.

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The wind profiles are nothing exceptional, though do become more favourable with time, though note the very strong storm relative inflow and very strong low level shear. The lack of mid-upper level flow is a slight mitigating factor although most mesocyclones source their environmental vorticity from very close to the ground (I've read one study which suggests even the lowest 500m) so the fact most of the shear is concentrated in this layer is not really a death sentence to tornadic activity in any way.

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Going by radar presentation, storms are taking their time to organise, which isn't exactly unexpected. Cameron Nixon mentioned on twitter, and I think some on here have mentioned too, but storms may be somewhat elevated, especially initially. However as seen in the soundings, the environment improves with time - enough to the point I think a robust mesocyclone could probably produce an isolated intense tornado closer to 22-01z.

Also worth noting these storms are forming just along/ahead of the shortwave axis and vorticity maximum, and this cluster essentially moves in phase with the shortwave as it travels north-east. Maybe this could overcome some of the thermodynamic issues.

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Definitely one of the more uncertain days we've seen in a while. Though I will say this is one part of the US that seems to quite often take advantage of these kinds of setups...
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I don't think we'll see a single tornado warning tonight across the state. It's 50 degrees and raining still.
Click to expand...

Will Ferrell Anchorman GIF by AOK
 
Imo the one with the most short-term potential is the Albia cell but I’d also watch the one near Ottumwa; it may be able to stay ahead of the line and cause some issues later down the road.
 
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