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Severe Weather Threat April 1-4

day1otlk_1200.png

" ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

... Overview ...

A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.

... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...

A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.

In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.

By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours."

No mention of strong tornadoes interestingly enough.
 
This is probably the third (I can't even count any more it's felt like so much) threat of severe weather that my area has been under in the past week and will likely vastly underperform again (haven't been impressed with the forecast around my specific area).

Getting worried that with all of these underperformance of severe weather threats within the past week around the South Bend IN market, that it will create the "boy cried wolf" syndrome, and we'll have some kind of severe weather outbreak come through at some point, and hurt or even kill a lot of people because they didn't take the forecast or warnings seriously.IN_swody1.png
 
Kds86z said:
Click to expand...


That's one of the things that caught my eye about almost that exact same area on 3/31/23 and lo and behold, that's where the Keota storm formed. Obviously much different setups overall but as far as the placement of surface features over Iowa according to that map, they are rather similar.
 
BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA
INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI, AS BOTH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OVER
THIS REGION AS WELL, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
THE INITIAL, MORE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTS A HEIGHTENED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS,
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG (EF2+) TORNADOES

 
As expected, North MS is finally under a Marginal Risk for Saturday. Would not be surprised to a further increase in risk level.

Latest from SPC: Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.
MEG_swody3.png
 
little personal rant about the whole community incoming


All of this "RRFS" trusting has really quickly thrown WXTwitter off board. A year ago, it was credited for 4/2 but aside from that, nearly nobody used it. Why is it being used so much now, just for the sake of fearmongering, hypeposting. I think it's hilarious how it convects super outbreaks sometimes on marginal risks, but i can't believe people actually use it seriously.

Even Trey had to put out a PSA to stop using it! Forecasting is not all CAMs, the devil is in the details, and right now, all of a sudden, the ship is switching on that platform to "this is looking like SLOP" when 24 hrs ago, "VIOLENT TORNADOES THURSDAY!!?"

There's no real way to win, and it seems there's a sincere lack of people who tell it as it is currently. I was told last night despite a obvious surface inversion on a stream, that there wasn't anything there and that "i don't know what you're trying to get at" yet it may be a limiting factor to cells becoming surface based today due to the LFC/LCL separation. (quick note, when they're separated, this means a indication of the environment being potentially washed over due to earlier convection)

I actually question how much of this community is just knowledgeable and doesn't use CAMs as a main source. I know, this forum has it and most of us know the limitations and what can happen

To quote Nixon again, "CAMs are nothing more than junk food"

They're scenarios. But give them credit, some of our underperforming days have been really sighted out this year. I just think if we keep relying on RRFS, then days are gonna get hyped more than they deserve to be and this will cause more misinformation online.

I still believe a window for potentially strong tornadoes exist but it is cramped and conditional. A lot of these runs have been suggesting slopvection with one or two mature cells. Only one HRRR run I've seen had a mature supercell with a big UH track, and that should tell you enough.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
little personal rant about the whole community incoming


All of this "RRFS" trusting has really quickly thrown WXTwitter off board. A year ago, it was credited for 4/2 but aside from that, nearly nobody used it. Why is it being used so much now, just for the sake of fearmongering, hypeposting. I think it's hilarious how it convects super outbreaks sometimes on marginal risks, but i can't believe people actually use it seriously.

Even Trey had to put out a PSA to stop using it! Forecasting is not all CAMs, the devil is in the details, and right now, all of a sudden, the ship is switching on that platform to "this is looking like SLOP" when 24 hrs ago, "VIOLENT TORNADOES THURSDAY!!?"

There's no real way to win, and it seems there's a sincere lack of people who tell it as it is currently. I was told last night despite a obvious surface inversion on a stream, that there wasn't anything there and that "i don't know what you're trying to get at" yet it may be a limiting factor to cells becoming surface based today due to the LFC/LCL separation. (quick note, when they're separated, this means a indication of the environment being potentially washed over due to earlier convection)

I actually question how much of this community is just knowledgeable and doesn't use CAMs as a main source. I know, this forum has it and most of us know the limitations and what can happen

To quote Nixon again, "CAMs are nothing more than junk food"

They're scenarios. But give them credit, some of our underperforming days have been really sighted out this year. I just think if we keep relying on RRFS, then days are gonna get hyped more than they deserve to be and this will cause more misinformation online.

I still believe a window for potentially strong tornadoes exist but it is cramped and conditional. A lot of these runs have been suggesting slopvection with one or two mature cells. Only one HRRR run I've seen had a mature supercell with a big UH track, and that should tell you enough.
Click to expand...
I agree. Without trying to sound controversial, this season has been lackluster so far. I think that’s playing a role in the community overhyping some of these events. The RRFS gives them the solution they’re subconsciously looking for. Other than the Atlantic event, my personal prediction on that one was a bu$t, I haven’t been impressed by any other set up this year. I think that’s leading to a lot of the overhyping on WxTwitter. They still haven’t had their “Welcome to the 2026 Season” event.

The events this year have been too conditional, and synoptically very janky, depending on either boundary riding or one cell just so happening to stay mere miles south of the warm front with storm scale events powering it (Kankakee tornado).
 
ColdFront said:
I agree. Without trying to sound controversial, this season has been lackluster so far. I think that’s playing a role in the community overhyping some of these events. The RRFS gives them the solution they’re subconsciously looking for. Other than the Atlantic event, my personal prediction on that one was a bu$t, I haven’t been impressed by any other set up this year. I think that’s leading to a lot of the overhyping on WxTwitter. They still haven’t had their “Welcome to the 2026 Season” event.

The events this year have been too conditional, and synoptically very janky, depending on either boundary riding or one cell just so happening to stay mere miles south of the warm front with storm scale events powering it (Kankakee tornado).
Click to expand...
Thank you for that part where they're "subconsciously" looking for these runs. None of them actually give any credit to those CAM runs because they want to believe that there's gonna be mature, significant supercells ongoing in that environment. They want to believe that and when it doesn't happen, it's a bust. That word's gonna be changed anyway when I send this, but I agree. I did it too in November last year with a SE MO environment and thought a strong tornado threat would be possible but it was only because of the lack of those events. I'm not no stranger to it and I'll out myself for it, but I've just quickly came to the realisation that not many of them actually use meteorology. It's simply just looking at w simulated picture of red beans with spikey large tracks and plastering on their wanted idea of a major outbreak.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
little personal rant about the whole community incoming


All of this "RRFS" trusting has really quickly thrown WXTwitter off board. A year ago, it was credited for 4/2 but aside from that, nearly nobody used it. Why is it being used so much now, just for the sake of fearmongering, hypeposting. I think it's hilarious how it convects super outbreaks sometimes on marginal risks, but i can't believe people actually use it seriously.

Even Trey had to put out a PSA to stop using it! Forecasting is not all CAMs, the devil is in the details, and right now, all of a sudden, the ship is switching on that platform to "this is looking like SLOP" when 24 hrs ago, "VIOLENT TORNADOES THURSDAY!!?"

There's no real way to win, and it seems there's a sincere lack of people who tell it as it is currently. I was told last night despite a obvious surface inversion on a stream, that there wasn't anything there and that "i don't know what you're trying to get at" yet it may be a limiting factor to cells becoming surface based today due to the LFC/LCL separation. (quick note, when they're separated, this means a indication of the environment being potentially washed over due to earlier convection)

I actually question how much of this community is just knowledgeable and doesn't use CAMs as a main source. I know, this forum has it and most of us know the limitations and what can happen

To quote Nixon again, "CAMs are nothing more than junk food"

They're scenarios. But give them credit, some of our underperforming days have been really sighted out this year. I just think if we keep relying on RRFS, then days are gonna get hyped more than they deserve to be and this will cause more misinformation online.

I still believe a window for potentially strong tornadoes exist but it is cramped and conditional. A lot of these runs have been suggesting slopvection with one or two mature cells. Only one HRRR run I've seen had a mature supercell with a big UH track, and that should tell you enough.
Click to expand...
I really do wonder why the RRFS is always so bullish on supercellular development in general. It almost seems like it's a bad thing for it to be publicly available for people to see because it's leading to every single thing you just described. It does bother me a lot because people throw out every other CAM to show the one that is known to completely blow the lid out of the water every time, show the general public, and then when it doesn't verify, laymen may not hold as much value in forecasting afterwards because the RRFS was wrong, and the person who showed it and preached it as truth doesn't care because it got them views and replies. It's a lose-lose that these "forecasters" exist. It simultaneously enhances public distrust in meteorologists (and science in general) and platforms individuals who care little for the actual outcome of weather events and only about making money and/or getting attention.
slenker said:
Normally I'd throw out the RRFS but it hasn't been entirely atrocious this year, I suppose. I still am not going to hold it to a higher regard like I do the HRRR. An uptrend on the RRFS to me is simply just an increase in the possible ceiling of the event - but I will say Thursday definitely has a shot at being a solid severe weather outbreak with tornadoes.
Click to expand...
This is a claim I take back. I did get caught up in people trusting the model output of the RRFS a little too much here, even with my skeptical tone on it. I'm not someone who is following things well enough in this field to know when trusting a model output is correct or incorrect.

By default, unless the RRFS changes, I'm not putting any faith in it whatsoever anymore, not even a bit.
 
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