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Severe Weather Threat April 1-4

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Cameron also put out a good thread on today that doesn't involve any wording of sorts regarding uh tracks, or that the HRRR finally fired a mature supercell!

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Can you summarize what was said? Not all of us are on X.

...and yeah, I'm going to quit looking at the RRFS, even for entertainment value. For some reason it has a massive bias toward discrete convection.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Can you summarize what was said? Not all of us are on X.

...and yeah, I'm going to quit looking at the RRFS, even for entertainment value. For some reason it has a massive bias toward discrete convection.
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Hope you're able to sneak something out today even if this is trending towards a heavily conditional day for anything. Good luck!
 
ColdFront said:
This season has been lackluster so far.
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I keep thinking this, and then remembering it's only April 2nd. I think compared to last year it has been lackluster, but overall it's still been a bit above average.

The things that are really getting to me is all the confusion around SPC risk areas, the popularity the RRFS has gained, and the amount of hype casting that has been happening. It feels like even the meteorologists have gotten caught up in it. I've had to unsubscribe from Max Velocity because he isn't even attempting good faith with his forecasts anymore. Every single storm is the worst storm ever and a "potential outbreak". It's exhausting. Especially because now every risk day is hatched too. I think that's why these threads have gotten so dead. Everyone has alarm fatigue already, and the season has barely even begun.

I'm going to catch heat for this, but I'm rapidly losing faith in the SPC's forecasts. A 10% hatched used to be a big event, with very high confidence supporting it. If the CAMs weren't showing it, we could have faith the SPC was seeing something we weren't. Now every single QLCS system is being hit with a 5-10% hatched and the established system has been flipped on its head. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The previous system was very effective and easy to understand, now it's completely different and the hypecasters are thriving off of it. At this point, I'm not going to buy into any event until they bring out the CIG 2.
 
Also, there's no room for nuanced takes when every event is an "outbreak" now, so I'd imagine that's why a lot of the METs have been missing in these threads. I'd really like to hear more takes from the other side in future events. These discussions have become very one-sided because no one wants to be the one that called bu$t before an outbreak.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
SW IA before the main show isn't a bad idea for several tornadoes near the surface low as it is setting up...
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I don't think we'll see a single tornado warning tonight across the state. It's 50 degrees and raining still. Tomorrow still has my attention. Looks like there will actually be a small cap in place, and a mini negative tilt trough. Only problem is the high is only supposed to be 59 degrees and CAPE is going to be middling. I'm not sure 1000 j/kg is gonna do it up here. If the sun comes out and we climb up to 70 degrees, then maybe, but I'd say there's about a 5-10% chance of that happening. I'll keep the thread updated if it does.

I think if it was late April or early May this would be an extremely potent set up, but it's still too early and there's not enough energy up here yet. That's my prediction at least.

1775147821317.png

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Grand Poo Bah said:
I don't think we'll see a single tornado warning tonight across the state. It's 50 degrees and raining still. Tomorrow still has my attention. Looks like there will actually be a small cap in place, and a mini negative tilt trough. Only problem is the high is only supposed to be 59 degrees and CAPE is going to be middling. I'm not sure 1000 j/kg is gonna do it up here. If the sun comes out and we climb up to 70 degrees, then maybe, but I'd say there's about a 5-10% chance of that happening. I'll keep the thread updated if it does.

I think if it was late April or early May this would be an extremely potent set up, but it's still too early and there's not enough energy up here yet. That's my prediction at least.

View attachment 52437

View attachment 52439
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Ah, here now, the event hasn't even started and you're calling for not a single indication of tornado warnings? The dry slot is filling in, but i have serious doubts about today. Potential for surface low spam in SW IA/N MO soon and then E IL/W IL. It's a very conditional window but that's close to almost calling it quits if you will. Tomorrow looks iffy. The more broken line up north may deal with forcing issues and may be tore apart unless the cap lessens.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Ah, here now, the event hasn't even started and you're calling for not a single indication of tornado warnings? The dry slot is filling in, but i have serious doubts about today. Potential for surface low spam in SW IA/N MO soon and then E IL/W IL. It's a very conditional window but that's close to almost calling it quits if you will. Tomorrow looks iffy. The more broken line up north may deal with forcing issues and may be tore apart unless the cap lessens.
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I don't think I've made a single correct prediction in the last year, so if anything you should be more bullish now lol.
 
mcd0332.png
Areas affected...Parts of northern MO...southern/eastern
IA...northern IL...extreme southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 021728Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a tornado risk may develop this
afternoon. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance is likely, though timing
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving
across the lower MO Valley early this afternoon. A 998 mb surface
low is located near the southwest IA/northwest MO border, with a
cold front trailing south/southwest into far southeast NE and
eastern KS. A warm front currently extends east-southeast of the low
into northern MO, then bends east-northeast from northeast MO into
central/northern IL. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold
front into northwest MO/far northeast KS, with gradually increasing
cumulus noted within the warm sector in advance of the cold front.

The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward through the
afternoon, in conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough.
Clearing associated with the midlevel dry slot and strong low-level
flow (40-60 kt in the lowest 2 km per regional VWPs) will allow the
warm front to quickly move northward in advance of the surface low,
with a destabilizing warm sector expected to develop into parts of
southern/eastern IA and northern IL by mid/late afternoon.

MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg (locally greater where stronger
heating occurs) and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will provide
a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms within the
warm sector this afternoon. However, given the relatively modest
buoyancy, potential for storms to mature remains somewhat uncertain.
If any robust updrafts can be sustained, then strong low-level
shear/SRH will support tornado potential, especially near the track
of the surface low. Localized severe gusts and isolated hail will
also be possible, due to the strong low-level flow and
supercell-favorable wind profiles. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance
is likely this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain.
 
Trey actually sounded quite bullish about today as of a few hours ago. He's surprised the CAMs are showing mini supercells when this is a "very robust large supercell environment". He thinks it's just a quirk of a unique system like this.

 
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