Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 6/19-6/23/2019

Taylor Campbell

Taylor Campbell

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A 50knt+ mid level shortwave and 576-582 height falls overspread our area with large to extreme instability in place. It should provide a healthy severe weather event for our neck of the woods.
 
Last couple HRRR runs are a snooze fest for AL. Decaying MCS. We'll see if that's the case, because I do have doubts about that.
 
00z guidance rolling in. HRRR continues to look like a nonevent. We’ll see what other WRF products look like in a bit. These MCS’s can be tricky.
 
Severe thunderstorm watch issued. And bow apex pointed right at me oh joy
 
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Alabama
Northeastern Arkansas
Central and northern Mississippi
Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020
PM until 600 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially
over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and
history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch
area. These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind
will remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also
is possible.
 
I think it meets the criteria for a derecho. Especially if it continues to hold together into Alabama.
Edit: it will need to hold together and travel farther east before it meets the criteria for a derecho.
 
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The bow is a strong one. Over 100,000 in Ark are reportedly without power after it came through. The latest radar scans may show it losing a little definition and tightness, especially on the north end of the bow, as it comes through western Miss. It could tighten back up, or not.
 
It's a bit of a struggle staying awake but with the apex pointed at me I kinda want to be up for it. I kinda hope the second cluster to the SW near Shreveport holds together after this and gives us an all night soaking without significant wind damage but time will tell
 
And there's my SVR warning. Some decent velocities on radar so I'm sure it's going to get windy here. Hoping for no damage, doesn't look as impressive as it did in AR/MS but not taking chances with it as there are wind damage reports in E MS. Excited for the rain though.
 
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