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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

I mean it clearly says could in the message. Andy is saying the same thing on Twitter
Completely anecdotal, but on events that actually verify, there’s no sitting around waiting or seeing fail modes materialize in real time. They pop off and go. This one clearly is already suffering from fail modes before the main event starts. I would also say this isn’t a “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency”, this fail mode was prevalent all morning in the models. It was staring us right in the face.
 
Storms are initiating on the dry line in the tx panhandle, and unlike the mess along the red river, they seem to be fairly spaced apart and are in perfect position to take advantage of the untapped environment up north.

I was thinking this event would fall flat on its face this morning because models simply weren’t showing this area to convect. Hopefully these somehow don’t take advantage.
 
Wouldn't be horrendously surprised to see increased storm separation as kinematic profiles intensify over the next several hours. But, I'm definitely not sold on any particular foci of tornadic activity across OK this evening. Regardless, one heck of a hail threat for the Plains from these storms.
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Theoretically speaking, could you cut a DVD sized hailstone into a thin sheet, and then put it into a DVD player?

If you want the meltwater to do damage to the player and its electronics, then go ahead. Otherwise, the answer is a solid "NO!"
 
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