tennessee storm chaser
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Looking like Sunday still main day per spc… even expanded the 30 percent …
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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
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CheeselandSkies
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SPC was quite aggressive with the Day 4 outlook, but it looks to me like the 18Z and 00Z GFS trended a bit less favorable for Sunday. Warm sector not getting quite as far north, trough more flattened out in the exit region at 500mb at 00Z Monday as opposed to the solid negative tilt on yesterday's 12Z run. However, the 06Z run that just came in appears to have shifted a little bit back in the opposite direction. Still some uncertainty there.
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I would say SPC has both Saturday and Sunday about on par with each other since both are sig-svr driven ENH Risks, and the SPC explicitly mentions a potentially significant severe weather episode with strong tornadoes possible for Saturday. They're in not even the smallest of ways ranking Saturday over Sunday, or Sunday over Saturday, at this point. Just because something is in your backyard doesn't mean it's the higher threat than something somewhere else the day before.
Tanner
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All I can say is that Saturday looks like it has outbreak of the year potential for both chasers, weather enthusiasts, and the general public risk, especially with the likelihood of a discrete mode.
I do see a few issues. There's a fair amount of dry air aloft and a very shallow moist layer exists. A pretty strong capping inversion also exists, but I suspect that it's just a NAM bias. Dunno if the moisture is also caused by a NAM bias but it's still a very, very concerning look.
Tanner
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The timing of the ejection is ideal though, therefore I find it hard to believe that capping is going to be an issue. Capping is always going to be prevalent in May setups in the plains, even the biggest ones.
Yeah, the capping may in fact be a contributing factor to the severe threat, so it's a bit of a double edged sword. Either it kills storms completely or makes them discrete.
tennessee storm chaser
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Well said … later May setups will mostly always feature some capping
Which can be a contributing feature, too.
TornadoFan
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tennessee storm chaser
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Starting see some jaw dropping soundings. For this weekend over most the 30 percent areas central eastern okie Saturday. West ky /tn later Sunday ugly hodos …. Trying copy paste
Yeah, they're absolutely nuts. STP of 15-20 in most of Oklahoma with zero contamination. Ridiculous CAPE values over 5k-6k and 0-1km SRH over 400 and even 500.
Stormchaser4life
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Wondering if Sat is cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency though. GFS and NAM dry and what cams go out that range are as well. I would think it should fire late in day towards evening with ejecting wave but if moisture is shallow could be problem.
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Yeah, that's what I've been thinking. We'll see if the cap is as much of a problem as models suggest once we see the 00z and maybe 06z runs for CAMs.
Stormchaser4life
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Potential issue I'm seeing is shallower moist layer only to 850mb and a big dry wedge above that. If wave can time correctly I think it will be big still but as we seen a few times in OK this year waves have timed later and held back ceiling of event.
Casuarina Head
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Given CAMs, I don’t think this will be even close to the “biggest ones.” (Not that this was ever expected to be top-tier, but why bring it up?) 6 May had more potential than this due to stronger forcing (and deeper moisture, if I recall correctly), and even in that case capping, along with improper timing and/or linear forcing, ended up being one of the factors behind a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. The shear vectors look more favourable for more widespread discrete activity on Saturday, but this year EMLs have been a major disruptor in regard to south-Plains setups, and given climatology will only be a bigger problem at this later date. Other than these, what other factors could come into play that would make Saturday’s ceiling lower than 6 May’s, or affect the likelihood of a similar Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency?
This event's ceiling is much higher than May 6, but whether it'll reach that potential or not is still up in the air. There's far more instability and shear, and the timing of the trough and other things is ideal from what I've seen. The cap is likely being overdone by models, but the shallow moisture could potentially throw a wrench in the setup. I doubt we'll have a linear mode that ruins the tornado chance, if anything, we'll just have little to no organized storms or convection as a fail mode.