Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[MichelleH]

The mods are going to have a field day with organizing this.
View attachment 27491

I stickied some threads this morning. I ain't doing this.

 

[andyhb]

Just going to straight up say that Saturday is reminding me of 5/31/2013 around these parts.

 

[Maxis_s]

Just going to straight up say that Saturday is reminding me of 5/31/2013 around these parts.

Some of the soundings are scary. Someone pointed out that the NAM monstrously uptrended in a single run in a certain area.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Just going to straight up say that Saturday is reminding me of 5/31/2013 around these parts.

What’s your thoughts Sunday ?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Planning on good chase things hold , so far seems be good chance we get some super cells in open space warm sector bout I 40 along TO the north there … before a severe qlcs rolls around that evening with embedded segments

 

[andyhb]

What’s your thoughts Sunday ?

Get through Saturday first, but Sunday could also be a significant and widespread severe wx event.

 

[Zabwxaj]

I’ve been lurking on here awhile. And now I’m unintentionally “chasing” this system by going to the Indy 500. Sunday looks pretty rough around Indianapolis. Someone give me hope?!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’ve been lurking on here awhile. And now I’m unintentionally “chasing” this system by going to the Indy 500. Sunday looks pretty rough around Indianapolis. Someone give me hope?!

Looks like you be near at the triple point …

 

[Maxis_s]

Funniest contaminated sounding I've ever seen.

 

[Maxis_s]

Real talk, if the cap breaks on Saturday, we have a MAJOR problem on our hands.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

View attachment 27525View attachment 27526
Real talk, if the cap breaks on Saturday, we have a MAJOR problem on our hands.
View attachment 27527

yeah saturday is getting worrisome, looking like we could be seeing saturday and sunday back to back days of a big outbreak... whats bad is also. this is a big holiday weekend. going be lots of people out on river and lakes and camping

 

[Kds86z]

yeah saturday is getting worrisome, looking like we could be seeing saturday and sunday back to back days of a big outbreak... whats bad is also. this is a big holiday weekend. going be lots of people out on river and lakes and camping

True.. I forgot

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[A Guy]

The same NAM run that's producing these forecast soundings is not keen at all on actually initiating and sustaining convection. I wonder why.

 

[andyhb]

Well, it actually does by 00z. Also the NAM's convective scheme is notorious for not initiating in environments where it should.

 

[A Guy]

Well, it actually does by 00z.

That's why I said 'significant', there's not much. But I forgot about NAM's issue in that respect, so carry on.

 

[Stormchaser4life]

0z gfs very concerning look for Sat meanwhile totally took nose dive on Sun setup. But models struggled with Tues a lot till we got closer and with these smaller shortwaves lower resolution models have difficulty.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

View attachment 27524
Funniest contaminated sounding I've ever seen.

That would be the tornado outbreak from hell.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Strange how you could do a Day 5 30% risk area that has more question marks, but not do it for a Day 4 that’s got better agreement.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Well, it actually does by 00z. Also the NAM's convective scheme is notorious for not initiating in environments where it should.

Shear profiles relative to the orientation of the dry-line look more favourable than those on 6 May, correct? So less of a failure-mode in that area?