Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

[buckeye05]

Things may be trying to grow upscale in Georgia, and what little discrete convection that has fired behind it is just not spinning at all. Starting to think the concerns about the wind profile keeping a lid on this may come to fruition, especially if the storm mode goes to slop.

 

[Tyler Penland]

RAP is the only model not initializing like garbage afaik, shows the northern cells popping over W AL and Central TN within a couple hours.

I just checked it on Pivotal and yeah it actually is initializing decently. Develops a big line of storms with decent looking soundings through the late afternoon/evening. Tracks through the moderate area. Seems to be in line with what the SPC thinks.

side note: is there anywhere to get regional views on the RAP?

 

[Kory]

I think places in East MS are mixing down drier air. Dry line still looks back toward I-55.

 

[WesL]

FYI I'm going to bump up our servers in a few moments. YOu might see a few errors.. Hopefully not. If you do get an error, wait a few seconds and refresh the page.

 

[sak]

I think places in East MS are mixing down drier air. Dry line still looks back toward I-55.

This could be the case.

 

[Xenesthis]

Odds of a PDS watch?

 

[WesL]

FYI I'm going to bump up our servers in a few moments. YOu might see a few errors.. Hopefully not. If you do get an error, wait a few seconds and refresh the page.

All done. Thanks guys.

 

[Tyler Penland]

Odds of a PDS watch?

I'd say not yet. They might upgrade it to a PDS later, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if north GA gets one once the cells get established. Probabilities won't be to sneeze at though I bet.

 

[StormStalker]

It's sunny, warm, and windy in NW Alabama at the moment.

 

[Tyler Penland]

Warm front is on the move in GA now. Lifting north/east. Seeing some clearing creeping across the border too.

 

[ARCC]

I think places in East MS are mixing down drier air. Dry line still looks back toward I-55.

That storm east of BHM looks moisture starved. Huntsville mentioned it and the models had been trending shallower with moisture depth for days.

 

[Equus]

I have the day off because one really can't finish a roofing job if it rains, and it looks like, IF storms develop in west AL, they'll be quite isolated. I coulda probably worked today, but I am definitely not complaining since I get to track severe weather from home.

 

[WesL]

Special sounding from BMX

 

[Equus]

Satellite trying to show things might be trying to fire a little more so than earlier? Guess we'll see

 

[Argus]

Did the warm front make it past Athens?

 

[Equus]

Dewpoint seems to be taking a dive even ahead of the dryline. I can't help but think that might help to inhibit things a bit.

 

[JayF]

Storm just SW of Talledega is intensifying.

 

[KoD]

I just checked it on Pivotal and yeah it actually is initializing decently. Develops a big line of storms with decent looking soundings through the late afternoon/evening. Tracks through the moderate area. Seems to be in line with what the SPC thinks.

side note: is there anywhere to get regional views on the RAP?

I use weather.cod.edu

 

[xJownage]

When they mention Kelley on Baxter's stream and you try not to get emotional

 

[Kory]

We've got initiation in TN.