Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

[Kory]

This has to be an almost worst-case scenario in terms of destabilization. But will the surface winds back enough that far west?

I think that's the biggest question mark. We're going to be seeing rapid destabilization. But will we get enough directional shear? And will the explosive CAPE allow for storms to make the most if we get meager SRH? So many questions...too few answers.

 

[Blountwolf]

MMX being down is a nightmare right now.

 

[barcncpt44]

NWS Birmingham is asking storm spotters for extra help today in SE Alabama.

 

[WesL]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
904 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Effective warm front roughly positioned from northern Sumter
County northeast across southern Bibb County east across southern
Talladega County and into southern Cleburne County.

The airmass is continuing to rapidly destabilize south of the warm
front with temperatures in the low to mid 70's along the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor along with dew points in the lower 70's
across our southern tier of counties.

We continue to monitor the potential for large hail with
thunderstorms near and north of the warm front and for the
increasing potential of all convective hazards to the southwest
across southern Alabama.

Our concern continues to increase with discrete storms moving out
of Clarke and Monroe Counties and into Wilcox County while
additional discrete storms are moving out of Escambia and Conecuh
Counties and into Covington County. These storms will pose a
threat to Selma/Montgomery/Troy areas through the next few hours.

Visible satellite imagery indicates some breaks in the clouds from
Washington County north to Tuscaloosa County. Solar radiation will
help to further raise temperatures and will result in further
airmass destabilization through the remainder of the morning
hours across our western and southwest counties.

The latest derived hodograph from the KBMX radar velocity wind
profile indicates 0-6 km bulk shear of 54 knots and 0-1 km storm
relative helicities of 108 m2/s2. The environment remains
supportive of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes south of the warm
front.

05

 

[PerryW]

lL

You mean the whole system pushing east? Do you think it will get rough today over north al and ga? There sure is a lot more rain over north Ga than I would have expected. Seems to be growing in coverage too. Hoping this might help to limit our severe chances later today.

It might help limit the instability and tornado threat in far northeast GA.......areas north east of Lake Lanier, but it's not likely going to help in areas around north metro Atlanta/ Gwinnett co/ and Athens where dewpoints are already in the low-mid 60's and expected to reach mid-upper 60's this afternoon.

 

[WesL]

MMX being down is a nightmare right now.

and Ft. Rucker as well. We have a plant in Eufaula and just hoping that we don't lose Eglin.

 

[Argus]

60 right now with a dew point of 56 here. Not quite low 60s yet.


Sent from my iPad using TalkWeather

 

[warneagle]

I think that's the biggest question mark. We're going to be seeing rapid destabilization. But will we get enough directional shear? And will the explosive CAPE allow for storms to make the most if we get meager SRH? So many questions...too few answers.

Yeah, I think that might be the big thing that limits the tornado threat, at least to the west of I-65 early in the day.

 

[Bama Ravens]

So do we think we will continue to see northward progression of the warm front, or has it stalled?

 

[Tyler Penland]

Current radar VS the hi-res NAM initialization. What are these people doing? I've never seen it this bad.

 

[MattW]

Why is that one SE of Heflin not warned?

 

[PerryW]

Looks like to me it keeps backbuilding in west central ga and streaming NE. Hard to say. Guess it could be good news for Atlanta for now. I think it eventually clears out some, but could lower overall severe threat potentially. Hard to say though.

The dewpoint at Atlanta airport is already 63. Per the UGA mesonet dewpoints are 65-69 at 10 am from LaGrange/ Carrollton to Jonesboro/ Griffin/ north of Macon. It looks like the 60 dewpoint isotherm/ wedge front is setting up near a line from near Athens to northeast metro ATL (currently 60 at Johns Creek) to Rome......but the western end of the front will lift northward, so we end up with the wedge battleground over Cherokee/ far north Fulton/ Cherokee/ Forsyth/ far north Gwinnett. That wedge front will be very dangerous, adding extra shear to any tornadic storm approaching it. The only part of Georgia I see this helping is from Gainesville to Jasper to Blue Ridge,,,,

 

[Kory]

This is a slab of low level moisture coming in. Fully clear in TCL. 70 dews no very far south. And boundaries will play a roll later....

 

[pritchlaw]

Right now, it feels fairly cool and stable in Warrior (20 miles north of Birmingham). Soaked to the bone up here too. That was a pile of rain.

 

[HazardousWx]

Yeah, I think that might be the big thing that limits the tornado threat, at least to the west of I-65 early in the day.

We always joke in the office about what the Weather Bureau used as a landmark prior to I-65 being built? US31?

 

[almays1]

Clearing skies in south Tuscaloosa County with temp and dew point rapidly rising...70/67.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

The dewpoint at Atlanta airport is already 63. Per the UGA mesonet dewpoints are 65-69 at 10 am from LaGrange/ Carrollton to Jonesboro/ Griffin/ north of Macon. It looks like the 60 dewpoint isotherm/ wedge front is setting up near a line from near Athens to northeast metro ATL (currently 60 at Johns Creek) to Rome......but the western end of the front will lift northward, so we end up with the wedge battleground over Cherokee/ far north Fulton/ Cherokee/ Forsyth/ far north Gwinnett. That wedge front will be very dangerous, adding extra shear to any tornadic storm approaching it. The only part of Georgia I see this helping is from Gainesville to Jasper to Blue Ridge,,,,

Perhaps. I could see it getting caught up across Northeast Georgia for a little bit. However, WAA is really pushing this thing North. Once this precip lifts, which it is currently doing, we'll see the East edge budge more. IMO.

 

[Bama Ravens]

What should I make of these showers forming over west-central Alabama?

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

The dewpoint at Atlanta airport is already 63. Per the UGA mesonet dewpoints are 65-69 at 10 am from LaGrange/ Carrollton to Jonesboro/ Griffin/ north of Macon. It looks like the 60 dewpoint isotherm/ wedge front is setting up near a line from near Athens to northeast metro ATL (currently 60 at Johns Creek) to Rome......but the western end of the front will lift northward, so we end up with the wedge battleground over Cherokee/ far north Fulton/ Cherokee/ Forsyth/ far north Gwinnett. That wedge front will be very dangerous, adding extra shear to any tornadic storm approaching it. The only part of Georgia I see this helping is from Gainesville to Jasper to Blue Ridge,,,,

Thanks for the detailed reply Perry

 

[Bama Ravens]

JP Dice really seems to think areas in Alabama south of I-20 and east of I-65 is where the primary tornado threat is. Didn't say other areas couldn't see tornadoes, but says that really seems to be the bullseye.