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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Tyler Penland said:
Yeah. Interesting they seem to be buying the in-situ wedge situation. The 4z HRRR certainly wasn't heading towards mid-afternoon. Probably a good call, though.
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They must be giving credence to the 3k NAM, its consistently shut north GA out of the significant tornado action. Other shorter range CAMs aren't indicating that at this point.
 
The fact that the storms around the gulf are staying cellular and not full of clutter is also a good sign we'll not be seeing too much stabilization.
 
Brax said:
5z HRRR trying to include some convection down around the coast in it's latest init.... But still not handling it all....
Going to see how this run plays out and then get some rest I guess.
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At hr11 it's moving those storms in AL into a very favorable environment in GA.
 
GTWXAlum said:
They must be giving credence to the 3k NAM, its consistently shut north GA out of the significant tornado action. Other shorter range CAMs aren't indicating that at this point.
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Yeah I wouldn't call 1000-2000j/kg CAPE at noon a wedge (5z HRRR numbers).
 
Monster plows into north ATL metro on the 5z.... Exact placement is meaningless, but the fact that large discrete cells will be able to run away with all the energy not soaked up by the widespread rain the NAM was hoping for gives rise to truly powerful storms later in the day.
 
First watch of the day has been issued.

wDciSki.gif


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123.html
 
Brax said:
Whelp....... KEOX is no longer updating.... One more radar down.
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Lovely. Yeah I no longer trust any guidance with those cells down south being so stout.
 
Can't tell if tornado or clutter on the radar south of Geneva, AL.... Just north of KEVX.... Beam is low, couplet is bright and tight.
 
Lori said:
Anyone have a clue to the location of the warm front??
Knowing what I know could happen, it was a little daunting leaving my daughter's in South Talladega County telling my kids, grandkids and parent's good bye and stay safe. They appear to be in the bulleyes but they are also very respectful of severe wx events, they all have a severe wx plan, I wish my parent's had a way underground.
Of course, I get home tonight and TWC is showing the Tuscaloosa story of the 2011 Outbreak....UGH....I'm just worried for people....
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Lori here's the UGA Mesonet dew point page. Updates every 10-15 minutes. Dewpoints as of 3
:30 am CDT now 60+ from near Augusta to Griffin to near LaGrange and southward' has been moving northward since late evening.....more rapidly than I expected.

http://weather.uga.edu/?content=si&variable=XD&title=Dew Point
 
Going to bed for real this time.

The only model i've seen that even got close to what's happening right now was the 18z WRF... The HRRRX had some similar solutions before it died yesterday as well, but now that it's back up it's drinking the same koolaid as the 0z runs.... I'm wondering if they ingested some bad data at 0z that caused this mess.... Hopefully the new balloons at 12z can fix this....

I expect the 18z NAM solution to be the closest to what actually happens today.... Good luck everyone. Time for my 1 hour of sleep for the night.
 
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