Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[ColdFront]

Ironically it kind of makes sense though, it's probably one of the least weird setups we've had this year. Honestly it might be the only "normal" setup we've had so far.

Really are 2018ing synoptically

 

[andyhb]

The writing was on the wall when we had extreme drought conditions across the western CONUS.

I mean, we also had initiation on two questionable CI days in Oklahoma lead to tornadic supercells immediately prior to this. It's more nuanced than this.

 

[jiharris0220]

If you would’ve asked me what day, out of this sequence, would produce the highest end tornado, I would’ve never said Thursday.

It had the lowest outlook out of all of the days as well.
What’s crazier is that when comparing it with all the others it actually looks the most favorable. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

 

[TornadoFan]

Well this storm in southern Missouri just went tornado warned.

 

[slenker]

I'm interested to see how tomorrow plays out now. Does this increase the ceiling or will it not really have an effect?

 

[US_Highway15]

Tornado Warning for Shannon, Howell, and Oregon counties on the storms headed into the Paducah CWA.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[DanLarsen34]

Really are 2018ing synoptically

The funny thing is, 2017 is the year I was thinking of. We had 3 high risk days, all of which Atmospheric Anti-Climax pretty significantly. The models did a terrible job that year with higher end setups as well.

 

[eep]

Thankfully if there are tornadoes the cells that will do them will have almost 0 radar coverage. Awesome.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Looks like the cells in S MO are trying to break away from eachother. Could be interesting.

 

[Tennie]

IIRC, wasn't a dry air intrusion considered to be a potential failure mode for today?

 

[Kds86z]

IIRC, wasn't a dry air intrusion considered to be a potential failure mode for today?

Yeah. I saw it posted by couple.

 

[jiharris0220]

Seems like the supercell just north of west plains has begun to root to its environment. Surface winds aren’t backed and still directional, so it can easily become outflow dominant.
If it can intensify any further and get a good forward flank inflow region going then it can actually do something.

 

[Tanner]

The cell near White Church, Missouri, has my undivided attention right now. This might be "the one" to do it.

 

[Tennie]

Ryan Hall showed a wreck-induced traffic jam near Dallas, Texas, which will soon have to deal with a large and encroaching hailstorm. Don't be surprised to see a lot of damaged windshields out of this...

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Brice W]

The dry air aloft isn’t really a negative in this kind of setup, for now, it’s more about how it’s positioned and how quickly it’s moving in. That “dry punch” you’re seeing is tied to the mid-level jet and stronger forcing, so instead of just killing storms, it can actually enhance them by steepening lapse rates and increasing downdraft potential. That’s part of why these classic water vapor looks show up in higher end events.

Where it can become a problem is if it mixes down too aggressively into the low levels and undercuts storms, but right now the better moisture is still pretty well established in the warm sector with strong advection ongoing. So it’s more of a balancing act than a negative.

If anything, that feature combined with the speed max moving in is part of why initiation looks more imminent now compared to earlier concerns about things being too capped or delayed.

The dry air became a negative…

 

[andyhb]

Seems like the supercell just north of west plains has begun to root to its environment. Surface winds aren’t backed and still directional, so it can easily become outflow dominant.
If it can intensify any further and get a good forward flank inflow region going then it can actually do something.

The winds are southerly near/ahead of those storms on observations.

 

[TH2002]

Well, I ended up taking a nap (don't mean metaphorically, I actually fell asleep because I was tired) and woke up to 10 new pages on the thread. Surely that means I missed something massive...

Nope

 

[Justin Hindman]

Headed back down western Illinois and south. A moderate risk and pds watch and not one tornado warning… crazy