Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Yikes this 18z sounding tells you all you need to know, directional wind shear, unoptimal jet streak orientation, and despite the LLJ being 50knots, SRH values aren’t even 200 and the hodograph looks like me after too many sessions.
Models fiddled with themselves too much and look what happens, smh.

 

[tornado examiner]

be an nws forecaster, in the middle of the 2026 storm season, looking at models the day of a upper echelon event, his buddy pops his head around the desk and asks

“What’s that dang dry air doin’????”

 

[US_Highway15]

I think this year we might be seeing the actual effects of decreased soundings. This is the second time this year models completely botched a setup to this extreme of an extent.

What's the first one?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

So, what did I miss? Other than absolutely f$*k all?
On a serious note, the only chance left of any tornadoes occurring at all are the three supercells in south central Missouri highlighted here.
They are in a primed environment, if they don’t produce, then this day will be remembered as for what happens when surface winds aren’t backed, models severely overestimating the forcing mechanism, underestimating the inversion layer and one of the biggest, if not the biggest b#st of a moderate risk recorded.

Will take a lot to top 364 days ago (4/28/25), which had a tornado-driven (by wording, if not technically on the graphics because they can't at that range) moderate from the initial Day 3 outlook.

 

[slenker]

I mean yeah but then you had the Enid tornado perform in a 5% hatched *shrugs*.

I don't know man, I just feel bad for all the mets, from the SPC to the local level, because days like today will just skyrocket the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and just overall just be flooded like "you have no idea what you're doing" comments, when they're just working with what they're presented with.

I'm not going to say that this event busting is a bad thing - it's a very good thing. It could have been a really nasty day based on a lot of the data we had. But with that being said, when we have days like this, it just enhances public distrust of meteorologists, and people use it to justify/support funding cuts. I'll definitely take having a bust over having a violent tornado outbreak, but a lot of laymen take away the wrong message and it's really frustrating to see.

 

[andyhb]

I mean yeah but then you had the Enid tornado perform in a 5% hatched *shrugs*.

I don't know man, I just feel bad for all the mets, from the SPC to the local level, because days like today will just skyrocket the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and just overall just be flooded like "you have no idea what you're doing" comments, when they're just working with what they're presented with.

Here's an idea, maybe we should stop defunding science in this country.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[eep]

What's the first one?

March 16th, over Appalachia/northeast. That one was equally as crazy.

 

[ColdFront]

If you would’ve asked me what day, out of this sequence, would produce the highest end tornado, I would’ve never said Thursday.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Even though this was never a high-risk day, this has to be the biggest bust I can recall seeing in a long time. Even on days where we've had unperforming high-risks, we still got at least one intense tornadic supercell. We might not even have a tornado in the PDS tornado watch today...

 

[warneagle]

What's the first one?

I assume they're referring to the mid-Atlantic non-event earlier this year, the rare time where we get to be the main character of the weather world and nothing happened

 

[US_Highway15]

Eminence and Mountain View MO storms have finally attached to one another, so, so much for discrete storms..

 

[US_Highway15]

I assume they're referring to the mid-Atlantic non-event earlier this year, the rare time where we get to be the main character of the weather world and nothing happened

Oh yeah I forgot about that event to be honest lol

 

[eep]

If you would’ve asked me what day, out of this sequence, would produce the highest end tornado, I would’ve never said Thursday.

Ironically it kind of makes sense though, it's probably one of the least weird setups we've had this year. Honestly it might be the only "normal" setup we've had so far.

 

[Ledian]

As much as today has underperformed...watch things start to go ballistic the moment activity heads more into Mississippi and into Tennessee.

Imagine if tomorrow ends up being what today was projected to be. Considering i'm right on the eastern tip of the 30% CIG1 wind risk, i certainly hope not.

 

[tornado examiner]

If you would’ve asked me what day, out of this sequence, would produce the highest end tornado, I would’ve never said Thursday.

I’m pretty sure no-one would have said that to be honest. It came outta nowhere.

 

[US_Highway15]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
740 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOZ100-107-108-280145-
Carter MO-Wayne MO-Ripley MO-
740 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CARTER...RIPLEY AND WESTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Eminence to near Gainesville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

These storms have a history of very large hail and conditions remain
supportive for tornadoes and damaging wind.

On their current track these storms would approach...
Fremont around 820 PM CDT.
Van Buren around 825 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Grandin, Mill
Spring, and Briar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor local radio stations and available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

Interesting statement released by NWS in Paducah KY.

 

[Tanner]

The writing was on the wall when we had extreme drought conditions across the western CONUS.

 

[warneagle]

Oh yeah I forgot about that event to be honest lol

yeah it was super fun, they closed all the museums and sent us home about 15 minutes before the squall line moved through DC, it was very cool