Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Kds86z]

Had more action from that ONE storm in Texas other night.

 

[Kds86z]

Hope we don't eat crow, but I'm officially on the bust train now. What a head-scratcher. Forecasters at the SPC this year have had an absolutely brutal time as of late with all of these super unusual setups.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Something I’m taking away from this, is these huge morning of east-west rain shield events rarely ever workout.

My takeaway is that when robust looking storms keep edging all day without climaxing, it's a sign that there is a fly in the ointment.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Every single time I question them I end up looking totally clueless, yet I continue questioning them. Every time.

I'm not sure we can chalk this down as an SPC win considering they thought highly enough to put the MDT out along with a PDS Watch, and strong wording in all of these MDs the last few hours. Especially when their concern was too much convection, and no mention (that im aware of) of a CAP being this big of a potential problem. Frankly sometimes there's just misses by everyone together. NWS even threw out big wording, both SPC and NWS put out graphics/MDs that these supercells were about to form.

Also not gonna blame them if this is a miss, either. Basically everyone was in agreement on today and Hi-Res computer models botched this worse than anyone.

 

[slenker]

My takeaway is that when robust looking storms keep edging all day without climaxing, it's a sign that there is a fly in the ointment.

What a way with words

 

[ColdFront]

My takeaway is that when robust looking storms keep edging all day without climaxing, it's a sign that there is a fly in the ointment.

That legitimately made me laugh.

Now I just need LakeEffect to come drop a borderline inappropriate comment to really get this party started.

 

[TornadoFan]

My takeaway is that when robust looking storms keep edging all day without climaxing, it's a sign that there is a fly in the ointment.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[tornado examiner]

I’ll take “problematic forecast” for 500 please.

 

[US_Highway15]

I can't help but feel bad for Evan Bentley. Bro has got to mute and delete the Twitter app on his phone for the next couple days.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

This whole past week has poorly underperformed, and one of the most robust tornadic storms (the one around KC) happened outside of a 2% zone. Gotta wonder if there’s something more systemic going on with models or data

 

[cincywx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central to northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 280023Z - 280230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes will
likely increase in the coming hours for portions of northern, and
perhaps central, Arkansas. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics and surface observations
show convection continuing to develop along a weak leading cold
front/outflow boundary across southern MO and far northwest AR. Over
the next few of hours, additional development along the front is
anticipated as the boundary pushes into a buoyancy axis featuring
MLCAPE values of 3500-4000 J/kg and as a reinforcing cold front
overtakes the convective band.

Pre-frontal convection appears possible based on the recent failed
attempt at initiation near Fort Smith, AR. However, a 22 UTC ACARs
sounding from LZK sampled lingering inhibition, which has not been
captured well by recent high-res guidance. Consequently, the
confidence in the development of discrete, pre-frontal supercells is
limited.

Nonetheless, some severe risk will likely materialize at least
across north-central AR in the coming hours. Storm modes will likely
feature a combination of organized clusters and embedded supercells
given focused frontal ascent, strong deep-layer wind shear, and
nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (sampled by the KLZK and KNQA VWPs). All
convective hazards will be possible with this activity, though the
potential for significant tornadoes may be most pronounced with any
pre-frontal supercells that can develop. Watch issuance appears
probable for portions of the area as convection migrates eastward.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

Waning confidence in OWS development across Arkansas and points south, per the latest mesoscale discussion.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[NorthGaWeather]

First to call high risk, first to call bust. You know what? I respect it.

Hahaha. At least they’re not trying to flirt with other posters. I’ll take this version any day of the week.

 

[Brice W]

This has to be the most bizarre storm season I’ve ever heard of or witnessed. So many weirdly forecasted events, so many unusual areas getting in on the action synoptically (Mid Atlantic What If) that didn’t really come to fruition. Meanwhile we’ve had a conditional setup produce a violent tornado.

 

[Beachwalker]

Mama says alligators is ornery ‘cause they got all them teeth, but no toothbrush.

 

[JPWX]

Watch Central AR into North MS get all the action

 

[Tennie]

There reportedly appears to be a fairly tight area of wind-driven building collapses in northern St. Louis, MO.

 

[US_Highway15]

This whole past week has poorly underperformed, and one of the most robust tornadic storms (the one around KC) happened outside of a 2% zone. Gotta wonder if there’s something more systemic going on with models or data

I mean yeah but then you had the Enid tornado perform in a 5% hatched *shrugs*.

I don't know man, I just feel bad for all the mets, from the SPC to the local level, because days like today will just skyrocket the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and just overall just be flooded like "you have no idea what you're doing" comments, when they're just working with what they're presented with.

 

[eep]

This whole past week has poorly underperformed, and one of the most robust tornadic storms (the one around KC) happened outside of a 2% zone. Gotta wonder if there’s something more systemic going on with models or data

I think this year we might be seeing the actual effects of decreased soundings. This is the second time this year models completely botched a setup to this extreme of an extent.