Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[eep]

Still not seeing much that really jumps out at me. Hillsboro is way too close to that line of storms IMO.

Not trying to be controversial at all guys, but I think the line is going to be the main event here up north

I think the southern cells are probably gonna be more efficient at tornado production.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Still not seeing much that really jumps out at me. Hillsboro is way too close to that line of storms IMO.

Not trying to be controversial at all guys, but I think the line is going to be the main event here up north

It looked like it was about to take off, but it cycled shortly after my post and now the storm orientation has gotten wonky and it appears to be getting pulled into the larger complex to its north.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like a bit of a meso forming on the storm near Sledge, Mississippi.

 

[Muwx]

Ironically, the best storms for chasing are likely to go through the absolute worst terrain for chasing. The two cells like SC Mo are likely the storms of the day, and headed for an area that is as bad as it gets for chasing.

 

[cincywx]

From SPC forecaster Andrew Lyons:

 

[TornadoFan]

Hillsboro, Missouri storm seen from Brett Adair's stream.

 

[akt1985]

I see a few showers developing in JPWX’s county.

 

[eep]

I almost wonder if the outbreak is gonna be east of where it was expected, TN-KN-MS oriented threat rather than Arkansas and warm sector MO/IL development.

 

[zath]

The Hillsboro, MO storm really weakened with the meso falling apart in the mid levels. It doesn't have much time before it gets absorbed by the line behind it.

FWIW storms are starting to develop across eastern OK/western AR and the WoFS has consistently shown that being more robust. Additionally, the storms across southern MO are looking more impressive: becoming more isolated and increasing lightning and hail cores.

 

[Kds86z]

Mississippi popping

 

[Bulkshear]

I almost wonder if the outbreak is gonna be east of where it was expected, TN-KN-MS oriented threat rather than Arkansas and warm sector MO/IL development.

This is actually been a concern of mine as this has been unfolding… Makes me wonder if we’re gonna have a nocturnal event here. As we all know, Tennessee is known for them.

 

[slenker]

2026 is the year of events just not wanting to do what you expect them to.

 

[ColdFront]

From SPC forecaster Andrew Lyons:

I agree with his assessment, but I just don’t know if they’ll be able to stay truly discrete over the next few hours.

 

[US_Highway15]

Isolated supercell in front of the IL QLCS line around Rockville IN, starting to develop that inflow notch.

 

[eep]

I agree with his assessment, but I just don’t know if they’ll be able to stay truly discrete over the next few hours.

Honestly from what I've seen they seem to have maintained isolation substantially better than anything else today.

 

[DanLarsen34]

From SPC forecaster Andrew Lyons:

These cells are quite isolated. Frankly, he could have included the storm to the north as well. The reflectivity has become more intense over the past few scans on those cells as they’ve begun to get closer to SE MO.

These storms are only now getting close to the western edge of the PDS watch. Hence the reason why I always thought we might get a watch like that, but much later in the day.

 

[lake.effect]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Ironically, the best storms for chasing are likely to go through the absolute worst terrain for chasing. The two cells like SC Mo are likely the storms of the day, and headed for an area that is as bad as it gets for chasing.

About to go through the mother of all radar holes, too. Will be a while before they get close enough to KPAH for a good low-level scan.

 

[ColdFront]

Paraphrasing, but James Spann says if you want to know how a day is going to go, see how the first storm of the day behaves.

Which begs the philosophical question, have we even had our “first storm” of the day yet?

 

[TheSuckZone]

Have we had even 1 tornado OTG today?