Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[cincywx]

New watch is a PDS tornado watch:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A MULTI-ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, SUCH OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONG/INTENSE (EF2+/EF3+). LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.

 

[andyhb]

80/80 tornado probabilities on that watch.

 

[SmokeEater]

Ya'll wanted a PDS, you got a PDS. 80/80 probs.

 

[Ozonelayer]

PDS watch now, honestly great job to the SPC for issuing it as a PDS.

80/80 probabilities too! wow!

 

[Kds86z]

Honestly....wasnt expecting a PDS tornado watch south of the main MDT. no??

 

[Maxis_s]

Never seen 80/80 probs, that's quite unusual. I guess they're expecting a lot of these tornadoes to be significant. CIG 3 upgrade maybe?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

Never seen 80/80 probs, that's quite unusual. I guess they're expecting a lot of these tornadoes to be significant. CIG 3 upgrade maybe?

Maybe, the environment would support it (as well as the storm mode that they are forecasting), so that would be on the table

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm NW of St. Louis just went tornado warned.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

There's the area https://fxtwitter.com/NWStornado/status/2048850903478763733?s=20

 

[Muwx]

Are we about to get major changes to the outlook? This watch being mostly outside the moderate risk, but also being a PDS watch is very confusing to me.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Honestly....wasnt expecting a PDS tornado watch south of the main MDT. no??

I'm wondering if we see a further southern adjustment to the MOD in the upcoming update.

 

[Kds86z]

Pds is south of the MDT so I wonder if they expand.

 

[Clancy]

I'm wondering if we see a further southern adjustment to the MOD in the upcoming update.

Its current position related to the new WW strikes me as add, but this kind of areal mismatch definitely isn't unheard of by SPC standards. Depending on what they're thinking though, I could definitely see the MDT getting pulled southward.

 

[lurker]

This is our first PDS watch of the year, according to https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/nws/pds_watches.php (there were 6 last year)

 

[warneagle]

Are we about to get major changes to the outlook? This watch being mostly outside the moderate risk, but also being a PDS watch is very confusing to me.

Yeah there’s got to be a southern shift to the MDT when the new outlook comes out. They’ll probably need to trim some northern areas back too.

 

[Weatherguyx]

80/80 probs pretty much high-risk territory or super close?

 

[TornadoFan]

No expansion according to the latest outlook.

 

[cincywx]

They explicitly note in their 20z update that there are no changes to the moderate risk area:

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO EXTEND THE MARGINAL RISK BACK
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS
INITIATING OVER THE LAST HOUR.

THE MODERATE RISK REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE MORNING
MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER
WEST IN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS, MODIFYING REMNANT OUTFLOW
REMAINS NEAR THE ST. LOUIS METRO. CUMULUS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, CUMULUS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR IS DEEPENING. INCREASING MLCAPE/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ARE NOSING NORTHWARD IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]