Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Kds86z]

I know we are in the now casting time, but the 18z is very ominous for Mississippi. It has 3 semi discreet/ discreet supercells firing in the northwest portion of the state.

tonight or overnight?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Dumb question, but doesn't this show dry air (yellow) going into the system? Wasn't this one of the possible flies in the ointment that could keep today from maxing out?

Mid-level dry air is a double-edged sword. IIRC you want a bit of it to keep your profiles from becoming too saturated, helping with lapse rates. Too much of it though and entrainment can cause updrafts to struggle/die off.

Edit: Didn't see @Brice W had beaten me to it!

 

[David Miller]

The sounding for some areas within the Mid-South corridor is raising red flags. I'd be shocked if we make it out today without a significant tornado there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

In

tonight or overnight?

In 3-4 hours

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

There opening up several storm Shelters now for the public through out the area here Starting 4

 

[ColdFront]

I know we are in the now casting time, but the 18z is very ominous for Mississippi. It has 3 semi discreet/ discreet supercells firing in the northwest portion of the state

@JPWX left the beacon on. Who needs a jet for ascent when you have that.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Decent amount of clearing now across the eastern half of IA, northeast MO, northwest IL and even nosing into SW/SC WI. Not sure if it means anything at this point though as SPC has already pretty thoroughly chopped away our severe probabilities on the north end and the HRRR doesn't signal much more than spotty "garden variety" convection north of that outflow boundary across IL.

 

[Justin Hindman]

STP's are up to a 7 west of St. Louis now.

But it’s north of the boundary I don’t buy it

 

[CheeselandSkies]

@JPWX left the beacon on. Who needs a jet for ascent when you have that.

Don't remind him, given what happened the first time "the beacon" was activated, 15 years ago on this date.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

But it’s north of the boundary I don’t buy it

Stp now up to 5 here just along ms river and increasing

 

[Kds86z]

Andy Hill yall watch for a blip in Mo/IL

 

[akt1985]

There are a couple of isolated cells trying to develop east of Winona, Mississippi.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z HRRR actually kind of resembles April 19, 1996 according to some of the wide radar views they showed here. Now just over 30 years later, I believe it's still Illinois' state record for single-day tornado count.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

New watch for the Mid-South should be out very soon. Coordination call was initiated about 20 minutes ago.

 

[genie]

There are a couple of isolated cells trying to develop east of Winona, Mississippi.

I would not be at all surprised if Mississippi ends up being a highlight of this event. It may be a bit removed from the jet streak, but there is plenty of space and fuel for whatever forms to thrive. Makes me wish my body would cooperate, because I certainly would have been over there today pre-accident.

 

[Kds86z]

Max watching storm west of Missouri that has tornado potential tag.

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[Justin Hindman]

N

Max watching storm west of Missouri that has tornado potential tag.

north of the boundary and mid 60’s up there, will probably stay elevated

 

[Kds86z]

PDS tor watch..

SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A MULTI-ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, SUCH OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONG/INTENSE (EF2+/EF3+). LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

pds toa has been issued