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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

Clancy said:
Something to note - HRRR has been very persistent in depicting a supercell with a strong UH streak making its way across parts of northern Mississippi into northwestern Alabama this evening. That area is a relatively notorious corridor for significant tornadoes, and with highly-favorable kinematics at this time frame in the region, this is a possibility that should definitely be watched closely.
4eCAnCj.png
Click to expand...
Definitely think we see a tornado watch for portions of northwest Alabama and north Mississippi evening /tonight.
 
One thing I noticed on the CoD website today (when trying to get the annoyingly late 1630Z outlook) -

The way they have adapted their graphics to display the CIG hatching, it uses a solid "x x" (bidirectional) crosshatching for CIG 2, which is what is used for CIG 3 on SPC's own graphics. That's not confusing at all...I about had a heart attack when the tornado graphic loaded.

I guess they haven't figured out how to display the small hatchmarks ("stipples," as Trey calls them) used for CIG 1, so they used the one-way hatching "/ /" for CIG 1 and the two-way hatching for CIG 2. Curious what they'll do for CIG 3.
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...WESTERN
TN...AND NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271844Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY AGITATED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS EVOLVING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS AND SOUTHWARD. HERE, DIURNAL HEATING
OF A MOIST AIR MASS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8.5 C/KM PER SGF 18Z SOUNDING) IS
YIELDING STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AREAS OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONES,
AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND
AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND MODEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME LINGERING CAPPING AT THE
BASE OF THE EML SHOULD FAVOR A DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODE. GIVEN A
50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS (250-300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) -- STRONGEST WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT, SEVERAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEAST
MO, AND WESTERN KY, WHERE A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/27/2026
Click to expand...

Pretty stout wording, noting that 'several supercell tornadoes and very large hail/damaging winds are expected'.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One thing I noticed on the CoD website today (when trying to get the annoyingly late 1630Z outlook) -

The way they have adapted their graphics to display the CIG hatching, it uses a solid "x x" (bidirectional) crosshatching for CIG 2, which is what is used for CIG 3 on SPC's own graphics. That's not confusing at all...I about had a heart attack when the tornado graphic loaded.
Click to expand...
yeah cod used to be my go to, still is....but dont like looking at graphics
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY AGITATED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS EVOLVING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS AND SOUTHWARD. HERE, DIURNAL HEATING
OF A MOIST AIR MASS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8.5 C/KM PER SGF 18Z SOUNDING) IS
YIELDING STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AREAS OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONES,
AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND
AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND MODEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME LINGERING CAPPING AT THE
BASE OF THE EML SHOULD FAVOR A DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODE. GIVEN A
50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS (250-300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) -- STRONGEST WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT, SEVERAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEAST
MO, AND WESTERN KY, WHERE A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
 
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