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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

The dry air aloft isn’t really a negative in this kind of setup, for now, it’s more about how it’s positioned and how quickly it’s moving in. That “dry punch” you’re seeing is tied to the mid-level jet and stronger forcing, so instead of just killing storms, it can actually enhance them by steepening lapse rates and increasing downdraft potential. That’s part of why these classic water vapor looks show up in higher end events.

Where it can become a problem is if it mixes down too aggressively into the low levels and undercuts storms, but right now the better moisture is still pretty well established in the warm sector with strong advection ongoing. So it’s more of a balancing act than a negative.

If anything, that feature combined with the speed max moving in is part of why initiation looks more imminent now compared to earlier concerns about things being too capped or delayed.
 
Max Velocity is rather flabbergasted that people on the camera streams aren't actively heading for shelter despite being under an active tornado warning!
 
Brice W said:
The dry air aloft isn’t really a negative in this kind of setup, for now, it’s more about how it’s positioned and how quickly it’s moving in. That “dry punch” you’re seeing is tied to the mid-level jet and stronger forcing, so instead of just killing storms, it can actually enhance them by steepening lapse rates and increasing downdraft potential. That’s part of why these classic water vapor looks show up in higher end events.

Where it can become a problem is if it mixes down too aggressively into the low levels and undercuts storms, but right now the better moisture is still pretty well established in the warm sector with strong advection ongoing. So it’s more of a balancing act than a negative.

If anything, that feature combined with the speed max moving in is part of why initiation looks more imminent now compared to earlier concerns about things being too capped or delayed.
Click to expand...
you rock! thanks much
 
St. Louis has been under the gun from Tornado Warned storms twice in the past hour.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
201 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Madison County in southwestern Illinois...
Northwestern Saint Clair County in southwestern Illinois...
Saint Louis City in east central Missouri...

* Until 245 PM CDT.

* At 201 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over St. Louis, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

* Locations impacted include...
St. Louis, East St. Louis, Madison, Granite City, Washington Park,
Caseyville, Fairview Heights, Pontoon Beach, Collinsville,
Edwardsville, Maryville, Glen Carbon and O'Fallon.

This includes the following State Parks...
Scott Joplin Historic Site and Horseshoe Lake State Park.

This includes Interstate 64 in Illinois near exit 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9019 3884 8997 3860 8986 3860 9030
3862 9031 3866 9030 3872 9025 3873 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 255DEG 26KT 3866 9026

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
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Don't want to be that person, but I predict that if there is a significant tornado/event today, these forums will probably be extremely laggy, maybe to the point of being unusable for a few minutes (like what happened with Enid a few days ago). Hope that doesn't happen but nobody should be surprised if it does.
 
lurker said:
Don't want to be that person, but I predict that if there is a significant tornado/event today, these forums will probably be extremely laggy, maybe to the point of being unusable for a few minutes (like what happened with Enid a few days ago). Hope that doesn't happen but nobody should be surprised if it does.
Click to expand...
yup..... I couldnt even get on here during Enid peak.
 
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