Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[warneagle]

Errrr.........

I’m mostly just amazed that there are 12 people living in that tiny sliver

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Just piggybacking off of that (still can’t posts pictures, but oh well), there’s a pretty noticeable, I think, prefrontal trough/confluence area in eastern/southeastern Missouri on both MSL Pressure and surface Obs.

So you have two possible OWS convective initiators already filling in (HCRs and Confluence)

Yeah. Still think we gotta clear out just that tad bit more but in a few hours, we will be ready for a potentially significant svr outbreak.

 

[jiharris0220]

Whew, I’d be lying if I said I expected it would be clearing out this fast.

Notice the stout inversion advection right into the MCS, which is what I suspect is aiding in this rapid clearing.
CAPE values in Iowa are above 1500 now. Perhaps Illinois might be more in play than expected, although CI proceeding the MCS likely stunts this possibility.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

VTP ramping up behind the clearing

 

[TornadoFan]

VTP ramping up behind the clearing

 

[Maxis_s]

VTP ramping up behind the clearing

Small reminder, VTP is just STP multiplied by 3CAPE (which is divided by a certain amount but I don't remember what)

Also, the southern tail of the MCS appears to be breaking up into individual clusters rather than a single connected band, with their own outflow boundaries.

 

[Muwx]

Small reminder, VTP is just STP multiplied by 3CAPE (which is divided by a certain amount but I don't remember what)

Also, the southern tail of the MCS appears to be breaking up into individual clusters rather than a single connected band, with their own outflow boundaries.

STP > VTP

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC running little late on update mmm

 

[Maxis_s]

STP > VTP

It depends, but 90% of the time I'd say that's the case.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

SPC running little late on update mmm

Always wonder if it implies some bigger changes to the over all outlook. A lot to take into account today.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[warneagle]

Not sure why they warned that, there isn’t really a defined couplet there. Obviously better safe than sorry when it’s in a densely-populated area like that but the radar signature is pretty unimpressive.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

As we approach the noon hour, most of MO/IA are clear. IL still mostly socked in except for south of I-64.

 

[Maxis_s]

Bit of a weird question, but what would this mean for the risk area? Would it mean the more messy mode to the north will be a bit further south?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Not sure why they warned that, there isn’t really a defined couplet there. Obviously better safe than sorry when it’s in a densely-populated area like that but the radar signature is pretty unimpressive.

It’s a routine thing where they warn a QLCS that has many kinks in the bowing segment. It’s more pro cautionary than anything. Since weak spin up QLCS tornadoes are almost impossible to confirm.