Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[tennessee storm chaser]

That being said, I think the 10%## can be extended south into AR/TN. Similarly volitile environment and discrete convection are also possible down there.

Noticed that also SPC does mention strong tornado threat could extend Arkansas to Tennessee .

 

[US_Highway15]

That being said, I think the 10%## can be extended south into AR/TN. Similarly volitile environment and discrete convection are also possible down there.

This strong tornado threat may also extend farther south into AR/TN, but confidence is
somewhat lower with southward extent due to weaker large-scale forcing. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) may also
occur with any sustained supercells.

At least they provided an explanation as to why

 

[US_Highway15]

Noticed that also SPC does mention strong tornado threat could extend Arkansas to Tennessee .

Which is exactly why the 5% hatched exists now. I think eventually they'll extend it south later.

 

[Tennie]

I've been sending alert messages to people I know in St. Louis, and telling them to share the information with others they know so that they too can be prepared for today.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Im thinking a expansion of the moderate will come a little later tbh. I don't think the current moderate encompasses enough

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Ok, I normally dislike watching/listening to the generalized streamers during events, but due to some RL emergency stuff, I'm going to have to be driving on I-90 from southern MN to Dane county, likely somewhere between 14 hours from now to maybe even as late as 23 hours from now. Who should I listen to while driving? Basically, who tends to be the most chill and comprehensive? From what I do know, I'm leaning towards Ryan Hall? I could also do NOAA radio, but that feels more reactive rather proactive/more difficult to follow while driving.

Really hoping that the northern side just doesn't have the juice. Thanks to everyone sharing their thoughts. The forecast discussion from La Crosse agrees with what I've seen here in that the evening will depend on how the morning goes. I'll definitely be checking in here to get some summaries of how the morning stuff plays out since I won't be able to track it myself.

Max Velocity is your best bet. Ryan isn't great at conveying information solely through audio, and also consistently hides ads in his boadcast.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Tornado-warned QLCS south of Hannibal, MO. That particular segment is moving fairly quickly, I think the training cells extending back to the southwest to south of the KC metro are the real issue for destabilization further north/northeast, especially seeing as they are moving southeast and not east or northeast.

 

[Maxis_s]

15 years from the super outbreak, looks like history might repeat itself.

No.

 

[ColdFront]

Observed sounding from Springfield at 12Z is absolutely locked and loaded. 2100 K/j of mixed layer cape with 500+ both 0-1 and 0-3 SRH.

The ongoing junk is still something to watch, especially if any training happens in southern Illinois, but it seems the nose of the jet/cap is sealing off the warm sector to its south. Really cool to see visually those MCSs get walled off.

 

[US_Highway15]

tornado-driven mdt. my god this is an event and a half. 15 years from the super outbreak, looks like history might repeat itself.

Dude drank the Reed Timmer Kool-Aid this morning

 

[MichelleH]

tornado-driven mdt. my god this is an event and a half. 15 years from the super outbreak, looks like history might repeat itself.

While today has the potential for a tornado outbreak, it is nowhere near the dynamics of that day. At all.

 

[ColdFront]

While today has the potential for a tornado outbreak, it is nowhere near the dynamics of that day. At all.

Totally agreed. Plus, you didn’t make the thread!

 

[DanLarsen34]

That being said, I think the 10%## can be extended south into AR/TN. Similarly volitile environment and discrete convection are also possible down there.

given their discussion about that area, I think it’s entirely possible it gets upgraded if they become more confident in convective coverage down there. Hell, I’d even venture to say it’s possible that an upgrade to moderate could happen down there before the evening hours given the favorable environment that would be in play for any discrete cells.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

tornado-driven mdt. my god this is an event and a half. 15 years from the super outbreak, looks like history might repeat itself.

Don't.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Max Velocity is your best bet. Ryan isn't great at conveying information solely through audio, and also consistently hides ads in his boadcast.

Ryan doesn’t run ads anymore during active severe weather coverage on twitch or YouTube. The only time I get an ad is when I first click on the stream occassionally. That said, I like them both even if I usually watch Ryan (think I like him having Andy Hill on who does an excellent job of highlighting threats in advance of warnings).

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[US_Highway15]

I wasn't going to say anything about it, but yeah...

 

[bckhd2]

tornado-driven mdt. my god this is an event and a half. 15 years from the super outbreak, looks like history might repeat itself.

This is both almost certainly untrue, and irresponsible to say.

 

[lake.effect]

The main rain shield in MO is screaming east at 50-60mph.
Timing is still a factor today. Another 30 or 60 minutes of atmospheric recovery could make a big difference in the result.

I think there's a small but non-zero chance we see a High risk today centered around St Louis, especially if the rain shield clears the state by noon.