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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
12z HRRR is a explicit outbreak scenario, easily capable of multiple strong to intense tornadoes. If we can trend more discrete tomorrow, we have huge issues. Right now, this line holds us from a higher ceiling.
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Think the SPC will go moderate with the afternoon update? That string of pearls is looking ominous.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Are we starting see a slowly increase in a tornado threat for east Arkansas west Tennessee and even north Mississippi for late tomorrow into Tuesday even ? Kind looks like it , with latest cam guidance
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Yeah. Another severe event that comes to mind especially when looking at the Monday night potential is March 31st, 2023.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Think the SPC will go moderate with the afternoon update? That string of pearls is looking ominous.
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Doubt it. Volatile environment that would be capable of likely violent tornadoes with a more discrete nature, but mode really is the question here. If we trend better with discrete nature, i could see it. Not as certain as it was for a MDT.
 
Hey. I'm not getting loose with analogs. It might not be for him, but it could be for me. In fact, this is the first specific analog I've mentioned on here (outside of years)
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Doubt it. Volatile environment that would be capable of likely violent tornadoes with a more discrete nature, but mode really is the question here. If we trend better with discrete nature, i could see it. Not as certain as it was for a MDT.
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I got my eye on this for sure …
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Doubt it. Volatile environment that would be capable of likely violent tornadoes with a more discrete nature, but mode really is the question here. If we trend better with discrete nature, i could see it. Not as certain as it was for a MDT.
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It looks like the strongest kinematics up north won't have as much instability to work with because of the first round of storms, and the most unstable, untapped environment down south won't have very strong kinematics.

I am intrigued by the environment down in Arkansas though. Has a very classic look with low drier supercells, and 60 kt effective shear can certainly get some stuff going.

 
JPWX said:
Hey. I'm not getting loose with analogs. It might not be for him, but it could be for me. In fact, this is the first specific analog I've mentioned on here (outside of years)
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Oh, i wasn't saying that. Just quoted him, he said it was important to not get t too loose with them. I personally do see eye to eye with you and I don't think 3/31 is a bad analog for Monday, just less extreme as a parameter space.
 
It's an interesting battle between the mesoscale models (NAM, RAP) and the CAMs (3K NAM, HRRR). The former two build a potent tornado environment into E IA/N IL/even S WI by late tomorrow afternoon, while as we've discussed, the latter two don't do that because of their incessant morning to mid-day convection. Not sure I've ever seen such a stark disagreement between two camps of models for this specific reason on an otherwise synoptically-event high-end setup before.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
It's an interesting battle between the mesoscale models (NAM, RAP) and the CAMs (3K NAM, HRRR). The former two build a potent tornado environment into E IA/N IL/even S WI by late tomorrow afternoon, while as we've discussed, the latter two don't do that because of their incessant morning to mid-day convection. Not sure I've ever seen such a stark disagreement between two camps of models for this specific reason on an otherwise synoptically-event high-end setup before.
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It’s always fun as a forecaster when the models are this divergent from each other this close to what could be a very high-ceiling event. At least they’ve been doing it from the off this time instead of waiting until the night before like we got with the Carolinas back on March 16th.
 
jackhutwx said:
please correct me if im wrong, but is it just me or is the 12z hrrr hinting at a more southern illinois threat than a central/northern illinois threat? looking at udh, not a ton of tracks up north.
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The 12z HRRR has a lot of morning convection that limits somewhat the spatial extent of the threat, but still has a nasty afternoon/evening across E/SE MO into S IL with supercells in a moderately unstable/very strongly sheared environment.
 
One of my rules of thumb is that potent synoptics are hard to completely delete re: severe weather because you can get rapid recovery given the strength of the wind fields. Tomorrow has potent synoptics.
 
The southern mode will be a big issue if mode can just space out that little bit more. Regardless, i still think tomorrow is a very potent day given the environment. It comes down to storm mode. No event is ever the same, but worth noting that our last really significant event on 4/17 had issues with storm mode and was still able to produce a potent tornado event in the Upper Midwest.
 
andyhb said:
One of my rules of thumb is that potent synoptics are hard to completely delete re: severe weather because you can get rapid recovery given the strength of the wind fields. Tomorrow has potent synoptics.
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This is what i was saying loads of people on YouTube in streams and comments. Regardless of morning convection, rapid airmass recovery is a decent given tomorrow and it only affects the spatial extent of the threat, not necessarily the environment in this case.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The southern mode will be a big issue if mode can just space out that little bit more. Regardless, i still think tomorrow is a very potent day given the environment. It comes down to storm mode. No event is ever the same, but worth noting that our last really significant event on 4/17 had issues with storm mode and was still able to produce a potent tornado event in the Upper Midwest.
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Yep not that far from being a outbreak further south parts Midsouth
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Maybe a unpopular opinion, but I now think Tuesday is the more volatile day, across the Tennessee valley and north Mississippi
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I would concur. Models very much on-board with the idea of secondary low development behind our main system, with NAM depicting a sub-1000 mb low moving northeast from the Missouri Bootheel through Ohio and into New England. Kinematics out ahead of it are impressive, only a bit less intense than our main system, mostly across parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. The development of a 40-50 kt LLJ Tuesday evening across the Southeast. Widespread DPs of 60-65 degrees would give storms sufficient juice to carry on into the night, aided by the low. Will have to watch trends with this system closely, I think it has the potential to be a pretty potent addendum to our already active period.
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