Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[slenker]

New D2 has CIG2 hatching covering the 10% tornado risk. Still an enhanced, but really straddling the line.

 

[N0mz]

Kerr...

 

[Kds86z]

Illinois again… my sister texted me today asking about Monday..

 

[Kds86z]

Kerr...

Tell me about Kerr?

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Kerr is one of the forecasters that seems to be very lenient with convective outlooks and hazards

 

[Kds86z]

Kerr...

 

[Maxis_s]

Tell me about Kerr?

Very conservative, often too conservative, with his forecasts. I think this one isn't so bad though, uncertainties do still exist.

 

[buckeye05]

Kerr is one of the forecasters that seems to be very lenient with convective outlooks and hazards

Conservative, not lenient.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Very conservative, often too conservative, with his forecasts. I think this one isn't so bad though, uncertainties do still exist.

Wow. Think Kerr
Got lazy overnight .

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Think Kerr also got conservative on day 3 also lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Nice write up on afd out KPAH. Paducah Kentucky

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Whilst I would say Monday's ceiling has got lower, I still do think it could be problematic down south. I just do not see the northern portion going big, due to the INTENSE morning convection that the HRRR has. I feel like Sunday firing late on that run is the reason why convection wipes out the whole warm sector briefly during the day. So if HRRR retreats on this scenario, we would likely see the more higher end scenario that models have been painting for days out here.

Specifically, HRRR has two isolated supercells in N AR capable of intense tornadoes at 03z. So to say we still don't have a intense tornado threat would be mindboggling. I just think spatially, this threat has got more limited which is a good thing but it's still pretty large of a parameter space.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Maybe a unpopular opinion, but I now think Tuesday is the more volatile day, across the Tennessee valley and north Mississippi

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tuesday will likely have the same areas under the gun close to 18-24 hours, atleast based on the NAM

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Are we starting see a slowly increase in a tornado threat for east Arkansas west Tennessee and even north Mississippi for late tomorrow into Tuesday even ? Kind looks like it , with latest cam guidance

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Whilst I would say Monday's ceiling has got lower, I still do think it could be problematic down south. I just do not see the northern portion going big, due to the INTENSE morning convection that the HRRR has. I feel like Sunday firing late on that run is the reason why convection wipes out the whole warm sector briefly during the day. So if HRRR retreats on this scenario, we would likely see the more higher end scenario that models have been painting for days out here.

Specifically, HRRR has two isolated supercells in N AR capable of intense tornadoes at 03z. So to say we still don't have an intense tornado threat would be mindboggling. I just think spatially, this threat has got more limited which is a good thing but it's still pretty large of a parameter space.

If we could get some height falls more pronounced from slp moving toward the lakes. Area down south would be juiced

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

12z HRRR is a explicit outbreak scenario, easily capable of multiple strong to intense tornadoes. If we can trend more discrete tomorrow, we have huge issues. Right now, this line holds us from a higher ceiling.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yea

12z HRRR is a explicit outbreak scenario, easily capable of multiple strong to intense tornadoes. If we can trend more discrete tomorrow, we have huge issues. Right now, this line holds us from a higher ceiling.

Yeah was just looking at that, also check the two isolated supercells in north Arkansas into West Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday morning and the volatile environment there in.

 

[Ledian]

The eastern outline of the hail outlook with the straight jump from 5% to 30% reminds me of some of those high risk outlook maps from the 1990s where there wasn't even a moderate.