Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[ColdFront]

I think the trough being a bit too flat (along with all of the earlier convection) is playing a role in this.

Re: Flat trough. That’s essentially what I (poorly, I admit) attempted to articulate the other day. No screenshots makes it harder.

 

[Beachwalker]

The area between Kalamazoo and Lansing, Michigan, is now under an Extremely Dangerous Situation (EDS) Severe Thunderstorm Warning owing to the strong wake-low winds in that area.

Can confirm. Trees down everywhere. 100k without power. No tornadoes and no snow so that’s a win.

 

[eep]

This entire event has been bizarre. From the watches and placement, to the current radar/set up.

The models are really botching this to hell tbh. Whatever outbreak we get will be substantially different than the outbreak people thought we'd get.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Something's off, and it's got to do with thermos here at some point. Not saying this will bust in any shape or form, but there's clear and evident failure modes right now. This may be a nocturnal event however, I wouldn't be surprised if this is a event where timing is later than expected by models for peak. Regardless, stout 700s continue to cap the whole OWS right now in that PDS watch.

 

[Bulkshear]

I think the trough being a bit too flat (along with all of the earlier convection) is playing a role in this.

If things don’t get going today, how will this affect tomorrow’s forecast in your opinion? If at all?

 

[Tennie]

Springfield, Missouri, is now getting absolutely blasted with hail!

 

[eep]

This entire event has been bizarre. From the watches and placement, to the current radar/set up.

Has there ever been a normal outbreak in this exact part of the US?

 

[ColdFront]

Something's off, and it's got to do with thermos here at some point. Not saying this will bust in any shape or form, but there's clear and evident failure modes right now. This may be a nocturnal event however, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an event where timing is later than expected by models for peak. Regardless, stout 700s continue to cap the whole OWS right now in that PDS watch.

Wasting 3000 k/j MLCAPE, just 2026’ing haha

 

[DanLarsen34]

Am I crazy for thinking the timing of the PDS watch was just off to begin with? I know there were those small showers that went up briefly in it, but they always looked elevated and weak. I was skeptical those were ever going to develop into the main show over there.

I could see the eastern portion of the watch getting much more active later in the evening into the overnight hours, but that wouldn’t line up with the watch timing almost at all.

 

[Beachwalker]

I think things are gonna go in another hour. Cap needs to be moved out? Tick tock. Tick tock. Anything that fires should be brutal.

 

[Ozonelayer]

If I had to guess, the cap might break when the sun begins to set more and as we head into the overnight with the LLJ screaming over the OWS. Obviously it wouldnt reach its full potential that way.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Something's off, and it's got to do with thermos here at some point. Not saying this will bust in any shape or form, but there's clear and evident failure modes right now. This may be a nocturnal event however, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an event where timing is later than expected by models for peak. Regardless, stout 700s continue to cap the whole OWS right now in that PDS watch.

Yeah that’s a stout cap at the moment

 

[TornadoFan]

Gonna keep an eye on that little cell that popped nw of Stuttgart, Arkansas.

 

[eep]

Wasting 3000 k/j MLCAPE, just 2026’ing haha

Not wasting, they're just amplifying as the day goes on. It could get really sketchy later.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This is probably more of a nocturnal event if i had to guess.

Latest mesoanalysis says a high end, volatile environment in E MO at the minute. Nothing in that environment at all though, and that is the saving grace m

 

[ColdFront]

Not wasting, they're just amplifying as the day goes on. It could get really sketchy later.

I was just being sarcastic from the Springfield sounding this morning lol. Yes, this could gnarly after dark.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Has there ever been a normal outbreak in this exact part of the US?

I don't know how exactly you'd define a "normal" tornado outbreak, but there have certainly been multiple high-end, significant ones in the mid-MS Valley from St. Louis southward to the MO bootheel/northeast AR/southern IL/western TN/KY. May 16, April 2 AND March 14 of last year. December 10, 2021. March 12 and April 2, 2006, Tri-State 1925...what is "normal"?

 

[Beachwalker]

Storm in very south IL is about to pop

 

[slenker]

Not saying this event is a bu$t, nowhere near over yet, but it’s definitely not playing out anything like what was expected. The SPC cannot catch a damn break this year with these incredibly tough forecasts, that’s for sure. I certainly don’t envy them.