Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[Clancy]

New watch out. 70/40 tor. probs.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
750 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern, Central, and Northeast Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, including embedded supercells,
will continue through the evening as a low-level jet intensifies
across the Watch area. A very moist and strongly sheared
environment will support the threat for tornadoes, potentially
strong, and large hail and severe gusts into the overnight.

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 152

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[GeneralChow]

Could warming of the climate actually be an issue …?

I can't imagine any conclusions could be drawn from the records. In 2003, NWS enacted a policy that led to lower ratings for tornadoes, because they required specialized teams to go survey the area. The rating standards also changed around the 1970s due to Fujita. During the pre-Fujita period, tornadoes were usually over-rated.

 

[Clancy]

Kaw City cell strengthening once again.

 

[MichelleH]

New watch out. 70/40 tor. probs.
View attachment 25926

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 152

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Oof. I have a dear friend in Tulsa and I was hoping he wouldn't be in the line of fire.

 

[Clancy]

Oof. I have a dear friend in Tulsa and I was hoping he wouldn't be in the line of fire.

By that time it'll probably be mostly linear, but the tornado threat will remain, and straight-line winds as well.

 

[cincywx]

coming into the okc area if it holds together

 

[Clancy]

Was just about to say I'm not sure where the meso is here but this just went TORR.

 

[TornadoFan]

Kaw City rotation is really intensifying.

 

[Clancy]

Doughnut hole for days.

 

[JPWX]

Wichita Falls storms needs to be watched carefully!

 

[warneagle]

this would explain a lot. That capping at 700 mb is surprisingly resilient and the forcing is too distant to overcome it.

 

[warneagle]

SPC maintains MDT risk but now only 10# TOR

 

[Tanner]

Jeez. Out of all days, today underperformed? You couldn’t pay me enough to be a forecaster right now.

 

[cg9450]

Jeez. Out of all days, today underperformed? You couldn’t pay me enough to be a forecaster right now.

We've had something like 82 tornado warnings and 200+ severe weather warnings? Night is young.

 

[wx_guy]

I can't imagine any conclusions could be drawn from the records. In 2003, NWS enacted a policy that led to lower ratings for tornadoes, because they required specialized teams to go survey the area. The rating standards also changed around the 1970s due to Fujita. During the pre-Fujita period, tornadoes were usually over-rated.

Makes you wonder if in the near future, we could measure tornado intensity officially in real-time, similar to hurricanes, using all the tools we now have available, instead of relying on damaging a populated area to get the most accurate ratings? I imagine the public could be greatly served by hearing "Level 4 tornado (or whatever) coming into downtown OKC right now!" and could help convey the seriousness of things.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

We've had something like 82 tornado warnings and 200+ severe weather warnings? Night is young.

i think he means in terms of supercells out in the OWS. The QLCS that is coming through will be very potent though

 

[Timhsv]

Forcing must be beginning to act on atmosphere as well as LLJ increases as cells are blowing up to the south of OKC in Carter and Garvins counties.
You just got to have that sunshine in most cases to break that Cap. Those anvil covering's earlier contributed to keep things suppressed IMHO.

 

[rushdude]

I checked the NWS outlook now.
DFW is down to 5% TOR risk and no longer in the hatched area.

I assume cap is responsible?

 

[Evan]

this would explain a lot. That capping at 700 mb is surprisingly resilient and the forcing is too distant to overcome it.

There's also some additional tweets between those two where it is mentioned the cap was gone at 18z but advected back in by 00z. Delayed trough ejection difficult to overcome with the thick cloud cover.

 

[Clancy]

This sucker is starting to ramp up more as it approaches OKC metro, because of course it would.