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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

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Evan

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Fred Gossage said:
They're top-tier outbreaks for a reason. Because they don't happen frequently in the long-term scheme of things. Again, the frequency that they happened in the 90s is not normal outside of occasionally happening as part of a long-term cyclical pattern, when looking at long-term tornado history. The same as when Dixie has top-tier outbreaks or the Ohio Valley has something similar to 1965, etc.
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Yep.

I'd also add that our understanding of climate and nature is both incomplete and subject to the recency bias. Our historical data pertaining to climate and nature is cruder, less complete, less certain, and less accurate the further we go back from modern day.

This round rock we all live on his been around a LONG time compared to the modern historical record we're all familiar with. Yes, people much smarter than me have done amazing analysis and extrapolation to generate historical data from periods long ago, however, it is subject to the limitations I mentioned above.

Science is hard, ya'll. The more we learn and think we know the more unknowns we recognize we simply don't know or have data for. I remember growing up thinking how hard it would be to top Hurricane Andrew, and that an event like the 1974 Super Outbreak wouldn't happen again for another hundred or two hundred years. This even goes for man-made events. Who thought we'd see a European war involving Russia?
 
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Shakespeare 2016

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tornado examiner said:
I’m talking about the actual top tier outbreaks…for what it was…yesterday’s outbreak was still far from what you would class as “historic”…no where near the likes of…

March 13 1990
April 26 1991
May 3rd 1999
May 24 2011

Ya know…those kind’s of outbreaks
Where actual extremely violent damage was done…
The last tornado to produce objectively violent damage in the plains was matador…and that was one fluke tornado on an otherwise middling day…

It seems like top tier set-ups just don’t do anything notable in the classic plains way anymore…
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The last F5 tornado in the Wichita metro was Andover 1991. There were two F5'S in Hesston and Goessell in 1990. I think the
Ast tornado to be rated F5 in the Wichita metro area was Udall 1955.
 
Clancy

Clancy

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Someone got sauced up before hitting this board.

Anywho, this cell has gusted out for the moment it looks like, but as mentioned before, it'll be heading towards highly populated areas, and it has plenty of instability to work with. Will have to watch these closely for the next few hours.
1714263692496.png
 
Clancy

Clancy

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A last view from vis. satellite as the sun sets over the Plains. Storms firing all the way through TX atm which should congeal into a nasty QLCS, so tornado threat or not, will likely be a long night for folks in Texas and Oklahoma.
1714264263097.png
 
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