Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado confirmed by weather spotters near Knox City, TX.

 

[SmokeEater]

No high risk today…

Honestly man at this point who cares, what matters with the public has been hammered home on all channels.

 

[cincywx]

Pretty good disco from andrew lyons on the 20z update

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the
southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large
hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are
all possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of
severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very
large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within
the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK.
Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been
slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong
southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an
increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level
hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through
tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the
southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode
and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the
environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track
tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into
tonight.

...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA...
The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the
most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south
should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a
few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of
the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for
ongoing storms.

Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection
have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern
MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm
development into lines and clusters appears likely into the
afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely.

..Lyons.. 04/27/2024

 

[Equus]

With the introduction of enhanced as an option for lower end moderate days, it feels like highs are now reserved for clear cut historical outbreak days lacking enough uncertainty to preclude any questions, which is probably fine; barring extreme historical outbreaks like 4/27/11 or 5/3/99 most of our violent tornadoes have usually been on conditional risk days much lower than high anyway. We used to have an insane number of moderate and high busts in the 00s and early 10s so I'm kinda glad the threshold is now so ridiculously high.

 

[SmokeEater]

Anybody questioning what this atmosphere can do today, look at the Knox County cell, absolute monster.

 

[wx_guy]

The Violent Tornado Parameter is nearly maxed out (6.39 is the 75th percentile, 10.1 is the 90th percentile) with some locations at 8-10. So any tornadoes that can form have utterly crazy potential. We'll see over the next 6-9 hours.

 

[SilentShadow87]

You know you're looking at a strong tornado when the hook echo starts to look less like a hook and more like an elephant's head. Not good.

 

[SmokeEater]

Going considerable for Knox County.

 

[cincywx]

classic supercell presentation and not to beat a dead horse, but this cell is currently not having to compete for anything

 

[Equus]

Yep that could definitely be an intense long tracker; the enviro is incredible for any sustained mesos, the issue is getting sustained mesos to root and this one has definitely made it

 

[atrainguy]

PDS

 

[OHWX97]

I’m really not liking the looks of the cell near Stillwater, OK. I can see it doing bad things here soon if it keeps getting its act together.

 

[cincywx]

At 312 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Knox City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

 

[KCweatherboy]

I think somebody mentioned it earlier, but if I had the means to storm chase, I'd be hanging out in Chickasha, OK for now until something pops S/SW of that area. Seems like just the right spot.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

With the introduction of enhanced as an option for lower end moderate days, it feels like highs are now reserved for clear cut historical outbreak days lacking enough uncertainty to preclude any questions, which is probably fine; barring extreme historical outbreaks like 4/27/11 or 5/3/99 most of our violent tornadoes have usually been on conditional risk days much lower than high anyway. We used to have an insane number of moderate and high busts in the 00s and early 10s so I'm kinda glad the threshold is now so ridiculously high.

Bingo. Couldn’t have said it better myself. To us enthusiasts, that pink high risk means a big day, maybe one of the big ones. To EMAs and WFOs it’s all hands on deck with personnel movements and prep. I’m sure gearing up for a busted high over and over would cause some complacency that when the real day comes, well…

 

[TornadoFan]

Chris Hall reporting rotating rain curtains on the Stillwater storm.

 

[Maxis_s]

Looks nasty.

 

[cincywx]

that couplet over knox city just keeps getting tighter.

 

[Clancy]

What a monster.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Chris Hall reporting rotating rain curtains on the Stillwater storm.

Low hanging wall cloud on his live stream.