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Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)

andyhb said:
Clearly not from anyone with a lick of intelligence. There was a 10% CIG1 extending into N OK with a 5% CIG1 extending south of that. I don't think confidence was high enough in sustained storms to upgrade to a CIG2.
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I thought that was the whole point of the CIG system though? That it was no longer tied to the probability of a tornado and but rather, was tied to a reasonable max intensity IF a tornado were to form?
 
Maxis_s said:
And for it to be such a narrow tornado, too. It likely wasn't much larger than the subdivision itself.

If someone can double check the location of this, that would be appreciated
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the contextual damage around these homes is also as textbook as it gets. Multiple trees completely debarked and some very intense ground scouring in some places.
 
If I had to guess I'd say that specific neighborhood will be rated EF4 170 MPH. Haven't seen anything to indicate it'll be rated higher. Obviously the contextual damage is upper end, but not sure it will be taken into account the way it should. These were obviously very well built houses considering walls are still standing next to severely debarked trees. I'm sure more farmsteads further down the path will be uncovered in the next few hours.

The eye test screams very high-end EF4 to me.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
If I had to guess I'd say that specific neighborhood will be rated EF4 170 MPH. Haven't seen anything to indicate it'll be rated higher. Obviously the contextual damage is upper end, but not sure it will be taken into account the way it should. These were obviously very well built houses considering walls are still standing next to severely debarked trees. I'm sure more farmsteads further down the path will be uncovered in the next few hours.
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Hopefully NWS Norman and the QRT involved utilize the contextuals to push it higher, assuming these homes aren’t well built enough to push higher than 170. Unless some new damage pictures come out telling a different story, I think 190 EF4 is appropriate here.
 
Muwx said:
I thought that was the whole point of the CIG system though? That it was no longer tied to the probability of a tornado and but rather, was tied to a reasonable max intensity IF a tornado were to form?
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Reasonable max intensity for CIG includes everything from EF2 and upwards. The levels of it are still a measure of confidence in such outcomes occurring.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
If I had to guess I'd say that specific neighborhood will be rated EF4 170 MPH. Haven't seen anything to indicate it'll be rated higher. Obviously the contextual damage is upper end, but not sure it will be taken into account the way it should. These were obviously very well built houses considering walls are still standing next to severely debarked trees. I'm sure more farmsteads further down the path will be uncovered in the next few hours.
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I'd wait till we get better images of the foundations before saying that the neighborhood is low end EF-4. We haven't gotten a good look at any individual house so we don't have a proper gauge on how well built they were outside of Google Earth, which suggests they were large, modern, well built homes just off of the looks.
 
andyhb said:
Reasonable max intensity for CIG includes everything from EF2 and upwards. The levels of it are still a measure of confidence in such outcomes occurring.
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Sure.. but only 6% of tornadoes in a cig 1 are supposed to be EF3 plus. In the SC KS and NC OK area, It was very obvious, based on the environment, that any tornadoes that happened were going to have legitimate chances of being strong to violent. If we’re going cig 1 for 2% chances of a garden variety short planting a tornado and cig 1 for yesterday in NC OK and SC KS then the CIG system is completely and totally pointless and no better than the old system. I think calling anyone who questions the decision unintelligent is spitting in the face of scientific discussion.
 
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The criticism of the SPC's forecast yesterday on here has been very constructive and not in bad taste at all. I don't know what twitter is like right now, though. Assuming Enid does receive an EF4+ rating (which it'll definitely receive an EF4 at least, that's not a debate at this point) and with the background environment, technically you could make an argument that even a CIG3 was warranted for tornadoes, in hindsight. I'm fairly sure CIG3 isn't allowable for the risk level outlined on that day, though - that'd push it into MOD territory by itself, and IIRC they cannot issue a CIG3 for 10% TOR. I'm of the opinion that a CIG2 was definitely warranted for the Oklahoma region with the knowledge we had on the environment on the day-of, though.
 
slenker said:
Hopefully NWS Norman and the QRT involved utilize the contextuals to push it higher, assuming these homes aren’t well built enough to push higher than 170. Unless some new damage pictures come out telling a different story, I think 190 EF4 is appropriate here.
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1000% agree. I'm just hoping they don't go EF3. There are definitely a few WFOs that would.

Ozonelayer said:
I'd wait till we get better images of the foundations before saying that the neighborhood is low end EF-4. We haven't gotten a good look at any individual house so we don't have a proper gauge on how well built they were outside of Google Earth, which suggests they were large, modern, well built homes just off of the looks.
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I don't even need to see the foundations to personally say it was high-end EF4. It's the obvious conclusion. Closer shots would tell me whether it was EF5 or not. My guess of 170 is purely based on precedent. The amount of homes with walls still standing can very easily be used as "evidence" that external factors (ie. thrown debris) caused the other homes to be slabbed, leading to the the high-end evidence being tossed, regardless of build quality.
 
Muwx said:
Sure.. but only 6% of tornadoes in a cig 1 are supposed to be EF3 plus. In the SC KS and NC OK area…. It was very obvious, based on the environment, that any tornadoes that happened were going to have legitimate chances of being strong to violent. If we’re going cig 1 for 2% chances of a garden variety short planting a tornado and cig 1 for yesterday in NC OK and SC KS then the CIG system is completely and totally pointless and no better than the old system. I think calling anyone who questions the decision unintelligent is spitting in the face of scientific discussion.
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Honestly, if they are trying to appeal to the general population audience they should just do a 1-5 scale like the local news does. I dont understand the new system at all and I am obsessed enough with the weather to be on this forum. Haha.
 
Schoeppeya said:
Honestly, if they are trying to appeal to the general population audience they should just do a 1-5 scale like the local news does. I dont understand the new system at all and I am obsessed enough with the weather to be on this forum. Haha.
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I don’t think the SPC should be designed in a way that explicitly caters to the general public. The SPC should be used by locals WFOs and tv stations/mets who are better at communicating to the general public. I think the new system is good, and honestly I think I understand it pretty well… it just seems like it failed yesterday pretty significantly.
 
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