• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Perhaps the Bakersfield survey hasn’t been completed on the public DAT…but is actually much better if this image is anything to go by. A Little Rock meteorologist uploaded this pic to twitter which was likely taken from the actual NWS DAT EDITOR.
The Bakersfield track is noticeably longer here than on the public version.
I think.

Yes I’m scrounging because I really desperately hope the Bakersfield survey doesn’t stay the way it is on the public DAT because it would make nws Springfield a laughing stock…
 

Attachments

  • IMG_0848.jpeg
    IMG_0848.jpeg
    79.4 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:
tornado examiner said:
Perhaps the Bakersfield survey hasn’t been completed on the public DAT…but is actually much better if this image is anything to go by. A Little Rock meteorologist uploaded this pic to twitter which was likely taken from the actual NWS DAT EDITOR.
The Bakersfield track is noticeably longer here than on the public version.
I think.

Yes I’m scrounging because I really desperately hope the Bakersfield survey doesn’t stay the way it is on the public DAT because it would make nws Springfield a laughing stock…
Click to expand...
I think it’s likely that a lot of the tornado surveying isn’t complete yet and probably won’t be for another couple of days to a week.
 
AJS said:
I think it’s likely that a lot of the tornado surveying isn’t complete yet and probably won’t be for another couple of days to a week.
Click to expand...
Indeed…but it is imo highly silly to upload such a half baked and unfinished survey to the public even if it’s preliminary. With wording that suggests that its path was finalized and inaccurate DI’s.
 
tornado examiner said:
Indeed…but it is imo highly silly to upload such a half baked and unfinished survey to the public even if it’s preliminary. With wording that suggests that its path was finalized and inaccurate DI’s.
Click to expand...
Now that I agree with. Low end EF3 is far too low for this tornado. Construction was iffy throughout the path of this tornado from what i’ve seen though, but contextual damage easily warrants a rating higher than a low end EF3.
 
One thing I noticed over the last couple days looking at maps of northeast Arkansas is that a lot of the major highways - and consequently, population centers, are oriented in a SW-NE fashion, almost exactly parallel to the tracks of the supercells from last Friday night (or actually most tornado outbreaks in general, but they seemed particularly aligned to this one).

AR-367 (which the Diaz tornado went almost right up), AR-25, US 49, I-57 and others. With a little worse luck, one of those cells could have produced a long-track, violent tornado that went right through Jonesboro, Paragould to Marmaduke, and the Diaz path might have extended from, say, Searcy to Walnut Ridge.
 
AJS said:
Now that I agree with. Low end EF3 is far too low for this tornado. Construction was iffy throughout the path of this tornado from what i’ve seen though, but contextual damage easily warrants a rating higher than a low end EF3.
Click to expand...
Bakersfield now upgred to 155mph. Still too low obviously.
20250319_074229.jpg
The 3/14 alone(Pi Day Outbreak) now have longer overall sig tornado path than Easter, Super Tuesday etc
image-1655.png
 
And this is simply my opinion, but if the Bakersfield tornado stays at ef3, it will definitely be an example of a damage survey underestimation.

I keep going back to these Facebook pictures which show blatant Ef4 contextual damage. The NWS Jackson surveyors who rated Rolling Fork put Ef4 DIs for the trees. I’m sure NWS Springfield can do the same here.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One thing I noticed over the last couple days looking at maps of northeast Arkansas is that a lot of the major highways - and consequently, population centers, are oriented in a SW-NE fashion, almost exactly parallel to the tracks of the supercells from last Friday night (or actually most tornado outbreaks in general, but they seemed particularly aligned to this one).

AR-367 (which the Diaz tornado went almost right up), AR-25, US 49, I-57 and others. With a little worse luck, one of those cells could have produced a long-track, violent tornado that went right through Jonesboro, Paragould to Marmaduke, and the Diaz path might have extended from, say, Searcy to Walnut Ridge.
Click to expand...
Very thankful that didn’t come into play. That would’ve been a nightmare scenario.
 
jiharris0220 said:
And this is simply my opinion, but if the Bakersfield tornado stays at ef3, it will definitely be an example of a damage survey underestimation.

I keep going back to these Facebook pictures which show blatant Ef4 contextual damage. The surveyors who rated Rolling Fork put Ef4 DIs for the trees. I’m sure the same can be done here.
Click to expand...

NWS Jackson was responsible for the Rolling Fork survey. They are known for being a very reliable, detail oriented, and passionate about what they do. They did an absolute fantastic job with that survey and gave every single bit of contextual damage recognition and helped it boost the rating of the tornado.

From what I can remember, i’m sure they even rated ground scouring present EF4.

Honestly goes to show the inconsistency of some NWS WFOs.
 
jiharris0220 said:
And this is simply my opinion, but if the Bakersfield tornado stays at ef3, it will definitely be an example of a damage survey underestimation.

I keep going back to these Facebook pictures which show blatant Ef4 contextual damage. The NWS Jackson surveyors who rated Rolling Fork put Ef4 DIs for the trees. I’m sure NWS Springfield can do the same here.
Click to expand...

Quite honestly, the contextual damage shown here is a notch or two above Rolling Fork if i’m being honest.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top